Reconstruction Of Technology Life Cycle Measurement Index And Empirical Study

In the context of the increasingly fierce global competition in science and technology,grasping the development trend of technology has important guiding value for the scientific research and development of enterprises.The premise of an enterprise's investment in technology must first fully understand and grasp the investment object,that is,the technology development stage is the main attraction of the investment object.Patents are an important way to measure the degree of technological development.People use patents to provide reference value for enterprise development and technology research and development.Based on the current research status,this paper concludes the theoretical research,method research,method application,and other research directions based on technology life cycle theory.It systematically organizes the existing discriminative methods and fully analyzes their respective advantages and limitations.And applicable conditions and environment,it is pointed out that the effectiveness of various indicators of the current measurement technology life cycle needs to be considered,and the indicator system needs to be improved.Therefore,we first perfected the index system and introduced the Price Index and citation half-life to measure patent aging problems to make up for the current in-depth research on patent quality.Establish a discriminant indicator system that includes eight main indicators,including four indicators of application volume,number of applicants,Price index,citation half-life,and patent indicator method,explain the meaning of the indicators and explain their respective performance characteristics.Based on this,a technical roadmap for constructing new indicators is proposed.First,the effectiveness of the indicators in the indicator system is measured.The importance of the indicators is analyzed by factor analysis.After the factors are rotated,the three indicators with the highest load among the common factors are selected as the new indicators Based on the indicators,a weightedsynthesis constructs a new indicator.For empirical analysis,we take the OLED field as an example,download relevant patent data from Derwent patent database and the State Intellectual Property Office,and obtain the index data after cleaning the downloaded data.After calculation,the application volume,Price Index,and new technology characteristics are selected.Coefficients build new indicators.Describe the technical life characteristics of the new indicator and clarify its changing characteristics.After accumulating the data of the new indicator over the years,it is fit into the software to obtain 3 estimates: saturation point,inflection point,and growth time.Based on these 3 estimates,the technical life cycle stage of the OLED field can be calculated.Next,we use the analysis conclusions of this article to compare and analyze the cumulative application volume analysis results,combined with the actual development of the OLED field,the results prove that the new indicators proposed in this article are superior: more scientific and comprehensive.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn: First,the mainstream indicators of the technology life cycle are complex and there is a large overlap with each other.The factor analysis method can effectively refine the indicators,and comprehensively and concisely construct the indicator model of the technology life cycle.Secondly,the technical route and solution for constructing the technology life cycle proposed in this article are universal,laying a method foundation and guidance for the specific analysis of various technical fields.Finally,compared with the traditional and commonly used indicators for judging the life cycle,the new indicator constructed has certain advantages and is more scientific: more comprehensive and accurate.