Research On The Measurement And Solution Mechanism Of UDIC. Debt Credit Risk In China

Since the promulgation of No.43 document in 2014,UDIC debt which are gradually stripped from the government credit support however,this process encounters many difficulties.To prevent the UDIC debt credit risk has become a major issue when solving the local debt problem in China.Firstly,this thesis reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the risk measurement of UDIC debt and municipal debt,then it reviews the development process of UDIC debt in China,it also reviews the relevant laws and regulations of UDIC debt in China,in an effort to provide the background information for the subsequent policy recommendations of urban investment transformation.This thesis is based the idea of credit risk reward(the interest rate),from 1997 to 2019,3820 valid samples of UDIC debt were selected,and 9785 non-UDIC debt in the same period were also selected as the comparison group.UDIC interest margin and issuance scale were measured and regressed from the aspects includes macro monetary policy,administrative level of UDIC subject,financial situation of UDIC subject,external rating level,implicit guarantee of local government,The main arguments of this thesis are: 1.All of the rating characteristics,liquidity environment,platform profitability and cash flow have significant impact on the risk premium of UDIC debt.2.As the growth of marketoriented reform,the financing platforms already occupied the interest rate sensitivity which concerning certain market subjects,but some of those platforms still risk from implicit government guarantee expectations and they have obvious differentiation.3.The financing platforms' marketoriented transformation needs to strip the investment of business assets from the hard-to-be-valued land,intangible assets and public welfare assets.Based on the case study which is chosen in this thesis,this thesis also gives some advices for financing platforms' market-oriented transformation in terms of the financing platforms perse,those potential supporting from financial market and the constructing of relevant regulatory policies.