| At present,China is in the stage of high-speed urbanization development,a large number of people move to the city with their studies and jobs,and the demand for urban commercial housing is rising sharply.The consumption of commercial housing accounts for an increasing proportion in Contemporary Chinese life.The commercial housing industry has a long industrial chain,which is closely related to other upstream and downstream industries,and plays a basic and leading role in the development of China’s national economy in recent years.In the new era,to maintain the healthy development of commercial housing market is an important content for people to live and work in peace and to realize the expectation of a better life in the future.In recent years,when talking about the influencing factors of commodity housing market,the importance of monetary policy factors is increasing day by day.According to the survey of house purchasers conducted by Shell Research Institute in 2018,90% of the first house purchasers used loans in that year,and the monthly supply of loans accounted for 42.9% of the monthly income.The dependence of commercial housing purchase on loans is stronger than before.The overall debt ratio of commercial housing development enterprises is generally more than 70%.Therefore,the adjustment of monetary policy to credit scale and loan interest rate will affect the development trend of commercial housing market.From the perspective of the development situation of monetary policy,the trend of using monetary policy to adjust and control certain specific industries is more and more obvious.The purpose of this paper is to study the specific impact of monetary policy on the commercial housing market in Shanxi Province,in order to put forward targeted suggestions for the use of monetary policy to precisely regulate the commercial housing market in Shanxi Province,and to provide valuable reference for promoting the healthy development of the commercial housing market in Shanxi Province.First of all,this paper summarizes the literature on the effect of monetary policy on the real economy,especially on the commodity housing market at home and abroad,expounds the relevant concepts of monetary policy and the influencing factors of commodity housing market,and analyzes the specific ways of monetary policy on the commodity housing market,so as to provide the basis for this study.Then compare the implementation of monetary policy in different periods of 2006-2018 with the commercial housing market in Shanxi Province,and preliminarily find the correlation and difference,then use the empirical model to test.This paper selects the monetary policy variables that specifically affect Shanxi Province from 2006 to 2018,and uses the data of supply,demand and price of local commodity housing market.The variables are selected with regional pertinence.This paper divides the commodity housing market of Shanxi Province into three dimensions: supply,demand and price,and constructs VAR Measurement Model to study the effectiveness and specific effect of monetary policy on the regulation of commodity housing market of Shanxi Province from the perspective of time series.The research field is subdivided to the provincial level,and many research results are found in line with the local actual situation of Shanxi Province,combined with the actual operation of Shanxi Province The empirical results are explained with specific data.At the same time,it has a strong practical significance to put forward targeted suggestions for the monetary policy to regulate the commodity housing market in Shanxi Province.At the end of this paper,according to the actual situation of Shanxi Province,using specific data to explain the empirical results,and from the supply,demand,price,expected guidance,market supervision,housing security and other aspects of Shanxi commercial housing market,this paper puts forward targeted suggestions on the use of monetary policy to precisely regulate the commercial housing market in Shanxi Province. |
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