Research On The Relationship Between Non-equilibrium Of Commercial Housing Market And Monetary Policy

Since1998when the welfare housing distribution system was abolished, the real estatemarket in China has been rapidly developing, which has become a leading andfoundational industry playing an important role in the national economy, beneficial tothe people’s livelihood and social stability. However, the over-heating real estate markettriggered a series of problems, such as rising housing prices, supply structure disorder,the shortage of security housing system as well as the growth of speculation andhousing bubble; therefore, there exists serious unbalanced development trend in thecurrent real estate market. In order to restrain the irrational market fluctuation, Chinesegovernment has taken a series of macroeconomic control, and the monetary policy is themost common measure with the most significant and rapid effects. This paper will focuson analyzing the non-equilibrium development of commercial housing market,meanwhile, carry out in-depth and comprehensive study to argue the relation and effectmechanism between commercial housing market and monetary policy.Firstly, this paper explains the related theories involving in the real estate marketnon-equilibrium and monetary policy, makes qualitative analysis about the effects ofmonetary policy on the market and analyzes how significant the real estate market is tothe entity economy development. Then, the hyperbolic polymeric equation and greyGM (1,1) model are established to analyze the non-equilibrium changes since1998andpredict the market trend after2012. The results show that: between1998and2012, thenon-equilibrium situation of commercial housing market keeps fluctuating and thedevelopment of commercial housing market can be divided into4stages according tothe non-equilibrium degree index, what’s more, the current market is staying in supplyshortage far less than the demand. The results from the grey prediction model prove thatif the commercial market is developing according to the current trend, the marketdemand is still greater and more than supply within three years after2012.Finally, this paper studies the relationship between the market non-equilibrium andmonetary policy with the integrated use of VEC model, impulse response, variancedecomposition and Granger causality test to explore the effect on the quantitative andstructural imbalance of commercial housing market played by monetary policy; on thisbasis, the SVAR model is established between monetary policy, commercial housingmarket and macro economy so as to make further research on what effectiveness thecommercial housing market play during the transmission process of monetary policytowards macro economy. From the empirical results, the influence on the quantitativeimbalance of monetary policy is higher than on the structure disequilibrium. The moneysupply amount and loans from financial institutions play a positive promotion role to the market supply and demand, but the interest rate has the opposite effect. The adjustmenteffect on the structural non-equilibrium of money supply is better than that of theinterest rate policy. In addition, commercial housing market plays an intermediary rolein the transmission process of monetary policy to the macro economy, which has asignificant contribution to economic output and prices, so it can be concluded that theregulatory effect monetary policy greatly depends on the development of commercialhousing market. The transmission process of monetary policy on the real estate marketis relatively smoother with remarkable effect, however due to non-equilibrium problemin commercial housing market, the afterward transmission process is hindered,especially the promotion effect on the domestic consumption is not significant asexpected.