Study On The Online Procurement Of Raw Materials With Uncertain Prices And Increasing Lower Bound

Procurement of raw materials is an important part of the company's business activities,and it is very vulnerable to factors such as sharp fluctuations in market prices,which brings great risks to the procurement decision-making process.Decision makers often need to consider suitable procurement strategies within a certain period of time to reduce procurement costs.We need to study the optimal procurement decision-making problem of when,at what price,and how much to purchase in an uncertain price environment in the future.Most of the previous studies on purchasing with uncertain prices were analyzed under the condition that the prices were subject to a random distribution or random process.However,in practice,prices are affected by various factors and the volatility is severe.Decision makers often cannot assume the existence of a random distribution of prices or a random process.Therefore,we need the optimal decision-making method without assuming any price distribution.The problem of online and competitive strategies is that the problem has strong dynamic characteristics.The online competition strategy can give corresponding plans for different situations.The online competition strategy's results and the results given by the offline optimal strategy are always within a certain ratio.This will not cause the problem that the results obtained by traditional static optimization methods are strongly dependent on the initial assumptions.Recently,researchers have begun to pay attention to the model of online procurement with uncertain prices.However,the basic assumptions of these studies all assume that although there is no distribution of price fluctuations,there is a possible upper and lower bound of the constant,and the upper and lower bounds remain unchanged with time.This article will expand the research on the existence of a fixed upper bound,but the lower bound is the problem of online procurement with increasing functions over time.This is mainly based on the following actual situation.First of all,in practice,there may be a situation in which the price fluctuates sharply for a period of time,but the overall trend is increasing,which is applicable to the problems studied in this paper.Secondly,the existing model assumes that the upper and lower bounds of prices are fixed,and this setting is essentially a forgetting strategy that keeps the amount of information constant over time,and the problem studied in this paper is obtained with increasing time.The information will increase,thereby narrowing price's range.Finally,the research in this paper is also applicable to the optimal decision-making problem in the reality that policy makers may increase the lower bound of expected price changes in a certain period in the future with expected situations.Based on the existing research,this article will put forward and study the problem of raw material online procurement with increasing price lower bound over time.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:1.Consider the problem of online purchasing of raw materials whose price is uncertain but the lower bound increases with time.The basic mathematical model of the problem is constructed.The corresponding competitive procurement strategy is given and the competition ratio is proved.The obtained competitive purchasing strategy is optimal,and numerical analysis is used to further demonstrate that the competitive strategy has better competitive performance.The extended research studies the online purchasing problem of the upper and lower price at the same time,and the expression of the optimal competition ratio is derived through derivation.2.The traditional online procurement model assumes that decision makers are riskaverse,but many decision makers are often willing to take certain risks in order to obtain profits or save money.Therefore,this paper takes the risk preference of decision makers into the raw material online procurement model with uncertain price but the lower bound increases with time,establishes a risk-reward model of online procurement with increasing lower bound of the price,divides the price into two intervals,and designs the corresponding Procurement strategy.The high price is set as the expected success,and the corresponding constrained competition ratio is given.And by proving that when the expected success,the cost of purchasing a fixed amount of raw materials is lower than the traditional procurement cost without considering the risk appetite,it proves the superiority of the strategy.Finally,the optimal constrained competition ratio is given,and the numerical analysis verifies that the competition strategy has a good performance.3.On the basis of considering the raw material online purchasing model with uncertain price but lower bound increasing with time,consider a convex function with unknown purchasing time interval and cost function related to the quantity purchased.Based on the explanation of the hypotheses,a basic mathematical model was established.It also analyzes several properties of the offline optimal strategy,gives an online purchasing strategy,and proves the optimally of the strategy.By taking the cost function as a special linear function as an example,the strategy is further explained clearly.Finally,a numerical analysis was conducted to analyze the change in the value of the optimal competition ratio under different input parameters.The results show that the strategy has a good performance.