| Bitcoin is the most innovative digital currency so far.The emergence of bitcoin can be said to be an innovation in the history of currency.However,since the birth of bitcoin,it has been constantly questioned by people,and its price has also skyrocketed,plummeted and extremely unstable,which has also triggered our thinking about the comparison of bitcoin.From the perspective of economics,this thesis makes an in-depth study on the characteristics,development stages,monetary attributes,asset attributes,price mechanism and price influencing factors of special currency.Because of its special production and distribution mechanism,bitcoin does not need a central distribution institution.Compared with physical currency and credit currency,bitcoin does not have national credit as guarantee and labor value as internal value basis,but its open source makes bitcoin have the characteristics of reducing transaction cost,cross-border payment,convenience and security.However,because the total amount of bitcoin is fixed,the value of bitcoin cannot be controlled by controlling the supply of bitcoin,and the price is not stable.In addition,bitcoin has not been widely accepted as a trading medium,nor has the function of value scale.Therefore,bitcoin is not a commodity currency at present,and it will exist as an asset for investment hedging.As the first completely decentralized digital payment system in the world,bitcoin is a revolutionary phenomenon in the financial market.This paper theoretically analyzes the price formation mechanism of bitcoin.As a special asset,the core value of bitcoin is that it realizes point-to-point direct transaction without central guarantee institution.Bitcoin is not only shaped by supply and demand,but also its price is determined by supply and demand.Because the total amount of bitcoin is fixed,the price of bitcoin is mainly affected by demand.When the supply of bitcoin reaches equilibrium,the price of bitcoin is determined.Based on the theory of price equilibrium,this paper defines the factors that affect bitcoin price as internal factors and external factors.Internal factors include bitcoin's own supply and demand market factors and technical factors that determine mining efficiency.External factors include financial macro drivers andinvestment attraction factors.In addition,due to the particularity of bitcoin's price rising,this thesis also introduces Bosu theory and momentum effect to explain the impact of bitcoin's previous price on the current price.In order to further explore the formation of bitcoin price mechanism,this thesis analyzes several factors that affect bitcoin price.In this thesis,we set up three OLS models,and build a testable model of bitcoin price factors.Using the weekly data from2013 to 2018,the thesis explains the relationship between bitcoin price and internal and external factors through the ARDL model and GARCH model,and uses the ARDL model to compare the impact of the price of bitcoin on short-term and long-term analysis.The empirical results show that the transaction volume is an insignificant variable,and the hash rate of technical factors will not affect the price of bitcoin,on the contrary,the price of bitcoin will increase the hash rate value.The lag of bitcoin itself will also have a positive relationship with the price of bitcoin.The price rise of bitcoin last week will increase the demand of bitcoin,and the price of bitcoin this week will also rise.In macro finance,S&P index 500 is a good positive factor,while the results of oil price and gold price are not significant.These variables are independent variables for bitcoin price,and their changes will not directly affect the trend of bitcoin price.Google's trend of investment attraction is a significant variable of positive sign whether in lag phase I or lag phase II.It shows that when people search bitcoin related information online,the market pays more attention to it,and investors will increase the demand of bitcoin,which leads to the rise of bitcoin's price.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis of bitcoin and the empirical results of the influencing factors of bitcoin price,this thesis puts forward the development direction and suggestions of standardizing bitcoin.Digital currency will be the trend of future social development,and the development of bitcoin will have a profound impact on the modern monetary system and even financial development. |
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