Research On The Development Of Economic And Trade Relations Between China And Southeast Asian Countries Under The Background Of "The Belt And Road Initiative"

In the face of the global economic downturn,the rising international environment of trade protectionism,and the domestic background of China’s slowing economic growth and entering a new normal of development,President Xi Jinping has put forward the initiative to jointly build "the belt and road initiative" and actively develop economic cooperation partnerships with countries along the route.With the proposal of "the belt and road initiative",trade and economic cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries have become increasingly close.However,there are still various contradictions and obstacles in the economic exchanges between China and Southeast Asian countries.How to promote trade facilitation and build a good cooperation environment is an important issue in the construction of "the belt and road initiative".Southeast Asian countries are one of China’s most important trading partners.Analyzing the current economic and trade pattern between China and Southeast Asian countries is of great reference significance for deepening future economic and trade cooperation.This paper uses the expanded trade gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries,and provides some reference for future economic and trade cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries by combing classic cases,so as to promote the high-quality development of bilateral economic cooperation and realize mutual benefit and win-win.First of all,this paper analyzes the current situation of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries under the background of "the belt and road initiative".The development process of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries is divided into three stages: friendly dialogue and initial crisis,"golden decade" and "the belt and road initiative".It is pointed out that the economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries are characterized by rapid development of trade and investment,unbalanced investment regions and industries,and constant trade friction.At the same time,the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries is analyzed by using terms of trade index,export purchasing power index and foreign dependence index.Secondly,it analyzes the influencing factors of the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries.The research on the influencing factors of the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries is mainly carried out from the following aspects: "the belt and road initiative" initiative,infrastructure construction,Southeast Asian Chinese businessmen,policy changes,geographical location,product complementarity,non-tariff barriers,business environment and RMB internationalization,etc.These factors have important influences on the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries.Thirdly,it makes an empirical analysis of the factors that influence the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries.Using the expanded trade gravity model and the double difference method,the paper further studies the degree of influence of relevant factors on the development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries.The main contents are as follows: based on the bilateral trade flows and investment between China and southeast Asian countries from 2010 to 2018,an expanded trade gravity model is established.according to the analysis in chapter 3,relevant research variables are selected and regression analysis shows that factors such as GDP,geographical distance and infrastructure have an important impact on China’s bilateral trade with southeast Asian countries.At the meantime,factors such as the economic scale,the population,the level of Internet development and share borders have a significant impact on the bilateral direct investment between China and Southeast Asian countries.In addition,it analyzes the classic cases of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries.Through combing the development cases of economic and trade relations between China and the Singapore,Philippines,Malaysia and Vietnam,and comparing and analyzing the characteristics and differences of economic and trade cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries,we can find that the economic cooperation between China and the countries along the "the belt and road initiative" line is conducive to the realization of bilateral strategic docking,while there are open differences in cooperation with different countries.Finally,based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to promote the sustained and good development of economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asian countries from the aspects of infrastructure construction,China-ASEAN Free Trade Area construction and trade cooperation.