| Since the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the United States in 1979,bilateral relations between China and the United States have been gradually returning to normal and bilateral trade has been developed by leaps and bounds.According to China's ministry of commerce,the United States ranked second among all China's trading partners in 2017,and China was the largest trading partner of the United States.However,while the trade between China and the United States is developing rapidly,there are still some frictions between the two countries.In particular,in recent years,the United States has frequently provoked disputes in the trade field,which has brought serious challenges to bilateral trade relations.For example,from 2003 to 2005,China and the United States had an unprecedented period of trade friction.After trump took office,he launched a series of trade remedy investigations against China.In 2017 alone,the United States launched 22 trade remedy investigations into China with a total amount of US $4.6 billion.In 2018,despite China's dissuasion,the US administration represented by Donald trump set off a new round of China-US trade friction.During the trade war,the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB showed a significant decline,falling from 126.2 to 120.0 at one point,and the reference rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated from 6.317 to 6.966,a depreciation of as much as 10.3%.In addition,the trump administration blocks Chinese companies from investing in the US and refuses to recognize China's market economy status,which brings more unstable factors to the stability of the RMB exchange rate in the context of the internationalization of the RMB.In this paper,qualitative and quantitative research methods will be used to analyze the impact of trade frictions between China and the United States on the exchange rate of RMB.First of all,by collecting data,this paper divides the China-US trade war since August 2017 into seven stages: the fuse,the beginning,the expansion and upgrading,the easing of the first round of China-US trade war,the beginning,the suspension and the expansion and upgrading of the second round of China-US trade war,after that it also briefly analyzes the development stage of China-US trade war and the current situation of RMB exchange rate fluctuation.Secondly,it concludes that the trade frictions between China and the United States under the trump administration have the following performance:(1)The U.S.government implements trade remedy investigation and unilateral trade restrictions on China;(2)the U.S.government prevents Chinese enterprises from investing in the U.S.;(3)intellectual property disputes between China and the United States;(4)RMB exchange rate disputes;(5)disputes over China's market economy status.Then this paper summarizes the following reasons for China-US trade friction:(1)The populism of trump government;(2)trump government's containment of China's industrial upgrading;(3)The trump administration sees China as a "strategic competitor";(4)The trade imbalance between China and the United States.Then,based on the traditional theory of exchange rate determination and previous research literature,this paper lists many factors that affect the exchange rate of RMB,and briefly analyzes the mechanism of Sino US trade friction affecting the exchange rate of RMB.In the empirical part,using the ARDL model,taking the real effective exchange rate index(REER)of RMB as the explanatory variable,the paper selects the 27 month monthly data from August 2017 to October 2019,and empirically analyzes the factors influencing the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate under the background of China-US trade friction.The empirical results show that,no matter in the long term or in the short term,there are significant negative and positive effects of deterioration measures and mitigation speech,which is consistent with the theoretical hypothesis. |
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