Research On The Impact Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate On My Country's Service Trade

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's service trade exports have continued to grow,and the overall trade scale has continued to expand.The incomplete substitution model believes that a country's service trade exports are affected by factors such as the price of domestic goods,the price of goods of importing countries,foreign national income,and currency exchange rates.Among them,among the many factors that affect a country's trade exports,the exchange rate is increasingly valued by researchers.Most of the existing literature focuses on the impact of exchange rate levels on service trade,and there are still few studies on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on service trade.Based on this,this paper systematically studies the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's service trade exports and its structure.This article takes quarterly data from 2000 to 2018 as a research sample,and establishes the ARDL model and NARDL model to empirically test the actual effective exchange rate of RMB and its fluctuations to the overall export of China's service trade,China's service trade structure,bilateral service trade structure and China's services.The impact of major industry exports under trade.The results show that:(1)In the short term,the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi increases,which has a depressing effect on the overall export of my country's service trade;the rise of the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has a promoting effect on the overall export of my country's service trade.In the long run,the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi rises,which has a depressing effect on the overall export of my country's service trade.(2)In the short term,the fluctuation of the renminbi real effective exchange rate will increase,which will have a promoting effect on China's service trade structure and the Sino-US bilateral service trade structure;the rise of the renminbi real effective exchange rate will affect China's service trade structure and the Sino-US bilateral service trade structure All have inhibitory effects.In the long run,the real effective exchange rate of RMB and its fluctuations have little effect on my country's service trade structure and China-US bilateral service trade structure.(3)In the short term,the increase in the renminbi real effective exchange rate fluctuations has a depressing effect on the exports of China's service trade and the export of the computer and information services industry;the decrease in the renminbi real effective exchange rate fluctuations will affect the tourism in China's service trade Exports of industries and exports of computer and information service industries have a promoting effect;the rise of the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has a positive effect on the export of tourism industries and exports of the computer and information services industry under the service trade of China;The export of the lower tourism industry and the export of the computer and information service industry have a restraining effect.(4)In the long run,the actual effective exchange rate of RMB and its fluctuations have an asymmetric effect on the export of computer and information service industries under China's service trade,and the actual effective exchange rate of RMB has an impact on the export of tourism industry under China's service trade.It is asymmetric;the increase in the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has an inhibitory effect on the export of the computer and information services industry under China's service trade;the rise of the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has an impact on the export of the tourism industry and computer and information service industry under the service trade of China Exports have an inhibitory effect;the decline in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has a promoting effect on the export of the tourism industry and the export of the computer and information service industries under China's service trade.In order to reduce the impact of RMB's effective effective exchange rate and its fluctuations on China's service trade,optimize China's service trade structure and Sino-US bilateral trade structure,and promote the development of China's service trade exports,China can appropriately expand the exchange rate floating range in the short term,and strengthen the exchange rate in the long term System reform,prevent exchange rate risks,give play to the actual effective exchange rate transmission mechanism,and encourage enterprises to use financial hedging tools and insurance products in a reasonable manner.