Analysis Of The Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Commercial Health Insurance Premium Income

In recent years,many documents issued by the Chinese government have emphasized the importance of commercial health insurance in Chinese future medical security system.Meanwhile,the premium income of commercial health insurance is also increasing rapidly year by year.Therefore,commercial health insurance in China will play an increasingly important role in national living security and medical services.However,Chinese commercial health insurance is still in the primary stage of development,the market is also not perfect,and there are still many problems to be solved.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to have an in-depth understanding of the specific situation and influencing factors of commercial health insurance premium income in China.This thesis aims to explore the specific factors that affecting the premium income of Chinese commercial health insurance and predict the premium income in the next few years.The main research contents include :(1)Through the descriptive analysis of the insurance density and depth of commercial health insurance,it could be seen that there were significant regional differences in Chinese commercial health insurance;(2)Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2008 to 2017,through fixed effect and random effect models,the relevant influencing factors of commercial health insurance were obtained,and it was found that per capita GDP,elderly dependency ratio,and the number of people in health care all had a positive promoting effect on premium income;(3)Using the premium income data of Chinese commercial health insurance from 2008 to 2017,the GM(1,1)model in the gray prediction model was established to predict the premium income of Chinese commercial health insurance in the next few years;(4)According to the research conclusions,some suggestions were put forward.