An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of Bank Credit On Real Estate Price

With the rapid development of the global financial market,the market economy has shown a trend of globalization and diversification,and the economic systems of various countries have become more integrated.According to the analysis of professional economists,it is not difficult to learn that the rise and fall of the real estate industry plays a vital role in the social and even the global economic situation.Usually,the steady development or even an upward trend of the economy will be accompanied by the prosperity of the real estate market.At the same time,real estate is also a necessity in people’s daily lives.The rapid rise in housing prices has come to the forefront in the society.China’s housing prices have risen rapidly since 2003 and fluctuated greatly in recent years.Under the pressure of economic downturn,the recent real estate regulation of China has shown a loose trend.The investment of the real estate industry is generally large and the cycle is long,and the development of the industry is inseparable from the financial support of bank credit.In China,bank credit is the main source of funds for the real estate market.The degree of credit supply of banks is directly related to the changes in supply and demand in the market,which in turn affects the fluctuation of housing prices and economic development.At the same time,the real estate industry is the lifeblood of China’s economy.The experience and lessons of many countries have warned us that the collapse of the housing price bubble is likely to trigger a series of financial crises.Therefore,the author believes that studying the impact of bank credit on housing price fluctuations and their relationship with the entire macro economy has certain practical significance.After studying some excellent research literatures of the predecessors,this paper first reviews the relevant theoretical knowledge of real estate and bank credit,then analyzes the current situation of China’s real estate and credit industry and combines the actual case of other countries to demonstrate that house price fluctuations are closely related to the financial crisis,and it is a warning education for China.Then it analyzes the mechanism and influencing factors of the impact of bank credit on real estate prices,introduces the variables of empirical analysis,establishes the ARDL model,and empirically tests the theory.The paper concludes that GDP,money supply and interest rates all have an impact on real estate prices in the short and long term.Inflation will affect the real estate market in the long run,while bank credit will have a certain impact on the real estate market in the short term,and the long-term influence will be non-significant.Finally,it proposes policy recommendations for real estate credit and real estate regulation in China based on theoretical and empirical results.