Research On The Influence Of Real Estate Investment Fluctuation On Financial Stability Based On Panel Threshold Model

In the process of real estate economic development and financial development,the financial system is an important source of funds for the real estate industry,the real estate industry is the main sources of profit of the financial industry,real estate investment fluctuation and financial stability have more and more close links,to explore the impact of real estate investment volatility on financial stability is of great significance.Domestic and foreign scholars mostly use linear methods to study the relationship between real estate market volatility and financial stability,but seldom consider the non-linear impact of real estate market volatility on financial stability.Firstly,this paper analyses the influence mechanism of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability from a theoretical point of view.The theoretical analysis shows that real estate investment fluctuation mainly affects financial stability through bank credit and shadow bank.The impact of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability may be non-linear.With the improvement of the level of financial development,the gradual improvement of the financial system,the gradual diversification of real estate financing channels,real estate credit risk and loan maturity mismatch will be eased,under different levels of financial development,the impact of real estate investment fluctuations on financial stability is different.In order to further test this hypothesis from an empirical point of view,this paper chooses provincial panel data from 2006 to 2016 in China and uses fixed effect model and panel threshold model to empirically test the impact of real estate investment volatility on financial stability.The empirical results show that:(1)Generally speaking,the fluctuation of real estate investment has a negative impact on financial stability.(2)The impact of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability is non-linear,with distinct threshold characteristics.When the level of financial development is higher than 0.94,the mismatch between real estate credit risk and term of deposit and loan is gradually exposed,and the negative impact of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability will become very significant.However,when the level of financial development crosses the threshold value of 1.41,the impact of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability is still negative,but the absolute value of the impact coefficient is significantly reduced.The negative impact of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability decreases with the improvement of financial development level.Finally,we make a robust analysis of the empirical results.The conclusion still supports the non-linear impact of real estate investment volatility on financial stability.Combining with the theoretical and empirical research results of this paper,in order to reduce the possible adverse impact of real estate investment fluctuation on financial stability,we can consider from two aspects,one is to calm the fluctuation of real estate investment,in order to reduce its impact on financial stability,and put forward the following policy suggestions: strengthening the construction of early warning system of real estate market,Keep abreast of the fluctuation of the real estate market,improve the supply structure of the premises,and ease the contradiction between supply and demand.Second,we are committed to improving the financial environment and improving the resilience of the financial system to the impact of real estate investment fluctuations,the specific policy recommendations are as follows: increase real estate financing channels,spread credit risk,strengthen financial supervision,establish a good financial environment,strengthen the review of real estate loans to ensure the quality of loans.