| Whether Japan after the 1990 s or the United States in 2008,to some extent,it has been proved that the sharp fluctuation of asset prices such as the real estate seriously threatens the financial stability.In China,real estate is still one of the core economic risks.Especially,China is entering the stage of deleveraging.As a capital-intensive industry,both supply and demand of the real estate need the support of the financial system..At this time,whether the real estate industry can maintain the normal production and operation of the capital chain,and whether it can stabilize housing real estate prices,is more important for financial stability.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability under the background of de-leverage,as well as to effectively regulate the fluctuation of real estate prices and mitigate the negative impact of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability.First of all,this dissertation combs the domestic and foreign research results on the relationship among real estate price,financial leverage and financial stability,and their respective theoretical basis.And The mechanism of the interaction among them is analyzed in detail.In particular,it focuses on the analysis of real estate prices through the macro-economic,commercial banking system,shadow banking system and mortgage-backed securitization channels to influence the financial stability.Then,eight indexes,such as monetization degree and non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks,are selected to construct the financial stability index by principal component analysis(PCA).The SVAR model is used to draw a conclusion that the fluctuation of real estate prices will have a negative effect on financial stability under the background of deleveraging.The conclusions are as following.Firstly,the ratio of foreign debt to foreign exchange reserves,the real effective exchange rate index and the degree of monetization are the three most important indicators affecting financial stability,on which we should strengthen the monitoring and analysis.Secondly,found that since 2016,with the increase of deleveraging and the reduction of the non-performing loan ratio of banking institutions,the financial stability continued to rise.Thirdly,whether house price fluctuation is beneficial to financial stability in the context of deleveraging depends on the game of deleveraging,house price fluctuation and their mutual effects.Finally,putting forward some countermeasures andsuggestions to control the fluctuation of real estate price and its market risk.On the basis of the existing relevant theoretical and empirical analysis results,considering the current development of China's economy,in order to mitigate the impact of real estate price fluctuations on financial stability,China should not only moderately control housing prices from the supply and demand levels,but also effectively control the formation,development and transmission of risks in the real estate market and establish a buffer mechanism for risks,so as to prevent further spread of risks to various industry sectors. |
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