Research On The Influence Of Credit Mismatch On China’s Real Estate Inventory

In 2018,more than 60% of the new loans of China Construction Bank were housing loans,and the proportion of housing loans of industrial and Commercial Bank of China was 54.9%,Agricultural Bank of China’s housing loan accounted for43.2%.Since the supply side reform in 2015,the real estate industry’s credit investment has become increasingly fierce.After studying some excellent research literature of predecessors,find and analyze the existing data of bank credit and China’s real estate industry.At the end of2012,real estate loans accounted for more than 20% of the total loan balance.By the end of 2019,the proportion reached 29%,but the proportion of real estate output value has been between 5.8% and 6.8%,which shows that the credit resources of the banking system are continuously allocated to the overcapacity real estate industry,and the financial resources have appeared to a considerable extent of the mismatch.As an important source of funds for real estate development and purchase demand,bank credit plays a positive role in stabilizing housing prices and curbing the vicious rise of housing prices.Whether the real estate industry bank credit is scientifically put in can greatly affect the real estate inventory.From the perspective of the area for sale of real estate and the vacancy rate of housing,China’s real estate industry has excess capacity,especially in the third and fourth tier cities.However,due to government intervention,information asymmetry,purchasing power channels and difficulties in exiting the stock credit market,credit resources are still continuously allocated to the real estate industry.Analyzing the financing situation and inventory of real estate in the past 10 years.This paper focuses on the analysis of the mechanism and influencing factors of credit mismatch in real estate inventory,leading to empirical analysis variables,establishing VAR model.In the long-term equilibrium,there is a positive relationship between credit mismatch and real estate inventory,Credit mismatch will aggravate real estate inventory.The pulse chart of credit mismatch real estate inventory is shown in previous periods,based on the theoretical and empirical results.This paper studies the mechanism of credit mismatch affecting real estate inventory,and provides theoretical and data support for real estate market regulation and credit business of commercial banks.