Research On Supply Chain Contract Under Confirmed Warehouse Based On System Dynamics

As a mode of supply chain finance business,confirmed warehouse financing is a new business form that the core enterprises of the supply chain provide financing guarantee for small and medium enterprises.Under the mode of confirmed warehouse financing,the supplier promises to buy back all the remaining inventory of the seller,and fulfill the responsibility of repayment if the seller fails to achieve the sales target when fails to timely repay the principal and interest.Therefore,the supplier needs to bear great repurchase risks and supply chain risks.Because the seller's contract order quantity has been determined before financing,in the case of increasing market demand,the seller is often unable to increase the order quantity in time.In order to solve the problem of over-ordering and under-ordering of sellers in the confirmed warehouse business model,it is an effective method to coordinate the interests of all parts in the confirmed warehouse business through supply chain contract.Considering that the confirmed warehouse financing is a complex dynamic system,and there is feedback and delay in the implementation process,a two-level supply chain system consisting of one supplier and one seller is studied from the perspective of the core enterprise of the supply chain.Aiming at the problems of suppliers' repurchase risks and sellers' insufficient orders,the repurchase contract and option contract are designed to reduce suppliers' risks,grant sellers the right to purchase more commodities,and improve the overall profit of the supply chain.The main contents of this paper include:(1)The mode and process of the supply chain finance and the confirming warehouse are recommend,the research methods and procedure of system dynamic theory are introduced,while the feasibility of using the system dynamics to study confirming warehouse is analyzed.Then the operation risk of each subject and dynamic influencing factors are introduced.(2)The dynamics model of confirming warehouse is established.Taking the secondary supply chain composed of a single manufacturer and a single seller as the research object,the supplier subsystem and the seller subsystem are constructed respectively,which can form the simulation model of the two-level supply chain system,the realism of this model is tested later.(3)The supply chain contract under the confirming warehouse model is simulated,aiming at the repurchase risks of suppliers in the confirming warehouse,and the repurchase contract is introduced to coordinate the demand of all parts in the supply chain.By setting single and double variables in the contract,the operation processes of confirming warehouse are simulated,the capital changes of suppliers and sellers are analyzed.It is found that the buyback contract can improve the profit of suppliers and supply chain,but it can't coordinate the supply chain at the expense of sellers,and then the operation decision-making suggestions are put forward based on the simulation results.In view of the situation that the seller cannot purchase more goods in the confirming warehouse,the option contract is used to give the retailers the right to increase the order quantity at the end of the contract.The operation processes of the covered option contract are simulated,and the impacts of the number of options on the profit of all parts are analyzed which provide suggestions for enterprises.The results show that the option contract damages the seller's interests when the seller's order quantity is sufficient,and significantly improves the seller's supplier and the supply chain's overall profit when the seller's order quantity is insufficient.There is an innovation point.It is difficult to restore the dynamic confirmed position financing system based on the steady-state mathematical model.By using the system dynamics theory,the repurchase contract and option contract under the confirmed position business model are simulated.It is proved that the introduction of contract can improve the profit of supply chain and the confirmed warehouse contract research is supplemented.