Forecast Of Cotton Price Fluctuation And Analysis Of Enterprise Cost Management Based On Markov Chain

Under the background of complex and changeable global economic environment,the living environment of textile cluster enterprises is deteriorating day by day.Influenced by the price of raw materials,labor cost and related policies,the low-cost advantage of textile enterprises is facing a severe test.The price fluctuation of raw materials is like an invisible hand hidden behind,which brings inconvenience to the cost control of cotton textile enterprises and affects the profit margin.Cotton is a basic textile material,and the fluctuation of cotton price rings the alarm bell of cost management.Therefore,the importance of domestic cotton price prediction is self-evident,which can not only control the production capacity,but also control the cost and avoid risks.To study the cost management of cotton textile enterprises under the fluctuation of raw material price and actively enhance the enterprise management level can significantly improve the competitiveness and profit space of the enterprises.By exploring the development process of cotton policy,this paper explains the effects of cotton purchasing and storage system implemented in China in recent years.The relevant raw material price index chart drawn by the continuously collected actual price data objectively reflects the large fluctuation of raw material prices.Therefore,the use of existing data and effective tools to predict the products in the market counts a lot for most users with larger operating costs in raw materials.According to the composition of the price index of textile raw material,analyses and collection of historical data for the fluctuation trend of the cotton price index,the adoption of the Markov chain to establish a mathematical model,and the use of VBprogramming to design a forecast system can predict the price of cotton in every month and day in 2020.The results show that the range of cotton price predicted by markov chain is basically in line with the change of actual market data,and the short-term cotton price index change with less fluctuation is more suitable to be predicted by markov chain.Based on the investigation of the current situation of cost management of textile cluster enterprises in nantong,this paper analyzes the influence of raw material price on the cost control of textile enterprises,and then summarizes the existing problems in enterprise cost management,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.This study provides theoretical basis and reference for the study and analysis of cost management of cotton textile enterprises under the fluctuation of raw material price.