The Impact Of Housing Mortgage Debt On Household Residents’ Consumption Upgrade

As China ’s economy has entered a period of new normal,from the past relying on the resource-driven model to the current innovation-driven model,economic development needs new momentum for growth,and in the international environment facing the economic downturn and protectionist rise of developed countries in Europe and the United States,China ’s investment has driven down and exports have been driven Access blocked.The last drive in the "troika" is consumption.Compared with developed countries and some developing countries,there is still room for improvement in the contribution rate of China’s final consumption expenditure to GDP.Strengthening consumption to drive consumption upgrades has gradually transformed into a new engine for China’s economic development.Academia had done a lot of research on factors affecting consumption.Most of researches were based on macro analysis.Due to the difficulty of obtaining micro data,there was still room for systematic research on household consumption with micro subject data.In addition,previous studies merely focused on the study of the impact of single household assets or single household debt on consumption,and rarely involved analysis of the trend of resident consumption upgrade and heterogeneous differences.In order to clarify the above issues,this study was based on the 2011-2019 Zhejiang University “Chinese Family Database”(CFD)and the five-year micro-survey data of “China Household Finance Survey”(CHFS)from the China Family Finance Survey and Research Center of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.First,starting from the upgrade of household consumption structure,from the perspective of household housing mortgage debt,we theoretically analyzed the impact mechanism of housing mortgage debt factors on household consumption and structure,and carried out layer by layer Advanced empirical test.Second,we carried out qualitative analysis of phenomenon of consumption upgrade in general,with innovatively added lag variables,control variables of housing wealth effect,economic variables of different macro areas and microfamily characteristics,and differentiate housing mortgage debt groups from consumption expenditure growth and consumption structure upgrade.Additionally,as the housing mortgage debt involves development differences between different regions,an empirical analysis of the impact of different groups of housing mortgage liabilities on household consumption growth and consumption upgrade in different regions was conducted by empirical analysis.Finally,a homeless control group was added and innovatively adopted The RDD breakpoint regression model identified the differences between groups,not only from the analysis of the impact of household housing debt on household consumption from the total amount,but also from the effect of the presence or absence of household housing debt on household consumption.Through the above-mentioned layered analysis of macro-micro combination,intra-group and inter-group differences,we examined the quantitative relationship between household housing debt and household consumption and the trend of household consumption upgrades.This study aimed to improve the households’ rational consumption plan and the government’s role Macroeconomic policies provide theoretical support for industrial transformation and economic growth.