Analysis On The Economic Effect And Influencing Factors Of Sino-Mongolian Economic And Trade Cooperation

With China’s "One Belt and One Road" initiative and Mongolia’s "Development Road" initiative,China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor construction has entered a new stage,and Mongolia-China economic and trade cooperation has also entered a new era.In recent years,the areas and scope of economic and trade cooperation between Mongolia and China have been expanding.China is not only Mongolia’s largest trading partner,but also one of the most important strategic partner.As a fast-developing country,China has achieved remarkable results in economic and social development.It has experience in reforming,innovating and developing systems,and has a huge domestic consumer market demand.Mongolia is located in the core hinterland of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and has rich natural resources.Resources and ecological resources are the main places of production and processing of green animal products.The two countries have strong resource complementarity and market dependence.From the perspective of free trade,systematically sorting out the influencing factors of economic and trade cooperation between Mongolia and China,and objectively evaluating the economic effects of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries are of great significance to the long-term and stable development of bilateral relations.Based on the objective realities of trade and investment in the economic and trade fields between the two countries,this study comparatively studies the differences in bilateral laws,regulations,and policies.Based on an in-depth analysis of the current state of Mongolia-China economic and trade cooperation,it systematically sorts out the influencing factors of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.In the paper,the stochastic frontier gravity model is used to determine the relevant variables according to the influencing factors of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.The trade efficiency and potential of the two countries are analyzed,and the degree of complementarity and complementarity of the import and export trade between the two countries is concluded.This paper exploratively applies the Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP),specifically analyzes how the free trade agreement between Mongolia and China affects the bilateral economy,and conducts detailed analysis on the macro and micro levels.Through literature search,it is found that there are fewer issues related to Mongolia-China trade research using the GTAP model.There are no mature research results,and no systematic data model analysis has been found.Therefore,this research may be one of the innovation points of this paper.At the same time,the core issue of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is also the focus of attention of the two governments,that is,exploring the establishment of a free trade area.Based on the analysis of GTAP,this paper makes a SWOT analysis of the construction of the Zamyn-Ude-Erenhot Free Trade Zone.The case analysis of this study is conducive to putting forward more targeted and operable suggestions.This study shows that,although the areas of economic and trade cooperation between Mongolia and China have been continuously expanded and the import and export trade volume has grown steadily,the single issue of bilateral trade and investment structure is prominent.Among them,the dependence on the mineral resources sector is relatively large,which has led to fluctuations in global commodity prices.There are many risks,instability and unsustainable contradictions.The study believes that the single bilateral trade and investment structure mainly stems from Mongolia’s own weak new industrialization foundation,inadequate infrastructure facilities,and imperfect financial capital market,which has become an important shortcoming factor restricting the bilateral economic and trade cooperation to a new level.By comparing and classifying the influencing factors,the paper concludes that Mongolia’s policy instability has become one of the important factors restricting bilateral investment and trade,especially in the investment field.The results of the GTAP model show that reducing the trade barriers of various commodities has a positive impact on the economic development of the two countries,but due to the relative differences in comparative advantages,it has a certain adverse effect on Mongolia’s traditional textile industry.Therefore,this study believes that expanding bilateral economic and trade cooperation is in line with the laws of economic development and the comparative advantages of the two countries.Its economic effects are generally positive effects,and negative effects can be avoided through system design.The study suggests that the correct direction of bilateral economic and trade cooperation is to establish a free trade area between the two countries.Under the respective legal and institutional framework,further deepen the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries,jointly innovate policies and try first,focusing on deep processing of mineral resources and infrastructure Cooperation in areas such as technological innovation,financial services,advanced manufacturing,commerce and logistics,and cross-border tourism,and jointly promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation.