Study On The Deviating Relationship Of Fictitious Economy And Real Economy From The Perspective Of Economic Cycles

The globalization of the real economy and the fictitious economy has had an important impact on the current international economic structure since the 1970 s.From a macro perspective,the excessive expansion of fictitious economies in developed countries and the severe lag of fictitious economies in developing countries have caused financial crisis for several years.At present,China ’s “disengagement from real to virtual” issues are particularly prominent in the process of economic gear shifting,kinetic energy conversion,and structural optimization.The structural “disconnection” between the real economy and the fictitious economy has become an important issue restricting the high-quality development of our economy.It is also an important source of financial market instability.The main purpose of the paper is to give the fictitious economy and the real economy a complete system of understanding and interpretation,understand the mechanism of coordinated development of the two,alleviate the current imbalance between the real economy and the fictitious economy,and prevent and reduce the impact of the financial crisis on the national economy.The real economy and the fictitious economy have different operating characteristics.The paper starts from the different operating characteristics of the real economy and the fictitious economy,investigates and discusses the deviation about them,and defines the real economy as the industry producing goods with material forms and general service industry.The fictitious economy is defined as financial industry,real estate industry and professional service industry.The real economy and the fictitious economy are interrelated but independent of each other.The paper explores the transmission mechanism and basic laws of the interaction of the real economy and the fictitious economy: The real economy acts on the scale of the fictitious economy and the virtual economic cycle by changing the future return on investment of physical assets.The fictitious economy acts on social consumption and investment through paths such as Wealth Effect,Capital Market Liquidity Effect,Tobin Effect,and Industrial Structure Adjustment Effect,thereby affecting the real economy.Therefore,it is considered that the joint effect of the real economy and the fictitious economy promotes the formation of an economic cycle,and it is reasonable to analyze the coordination relationship between the real economy and the fictitious economy from the perspective of the economic cycle.In terms of model construction,based on the balanced growth model of the real economy and the fictitious economy,the basic mechanism for coordinated development of the two was explored.The results show that the real economy and the fictitious economy are constantly deviating from each other and the business cycles are formed.In the econometric examination of the real economy and the fictitious economy,this paper studies the business cycle theory content of the Classical School,the Keynesian School,the Monetary School,the Neoclassical School,the Actual Economic School,the New Keynes School,and other economic schools,and reviews the different divisions of the economic cycle.The paper divides the state of China’s economic operation from 1997 to 2018 into seven stages,spanning two economic cycles,exploring the development characteristics of the Chinese economy in different cycle stages and the characteristics of the relationship between the real economy and the fictitious economy in the corresponding period.The Unit Root Testing and Granger Causality Testing verify the relationship between the two.The results show that the development of the real economy and the fictitious economy shows an independent development trend at each stage of the economic cycle.The reason is that China’s real economic structure is lagging behind,serious speculation in the financial market and weak supervision.Based on this,three targeted policy suggestions are proposed.