Research On Financial Crisis Warning Models Of Chinese Listed Corporations Based On VaR And Industry Competition Concentration

New opportunities provided by the rapid development of the global science and technology economy,greater uncertainty in the operation and development of enterprises,excessive debt,blind expansion,financial crisis and so on.Listed company as a vane that the industry reflects the level of economic development,researching their early warning system of financial risks is of great significance to the economic development of enterprises and the country.After summarizing relevant research methods and conclusions of financial early warning and risk assessment at home and abroad,this article aims at the development characteristics,development environment,and industry characteristics of listed companies in China by selecting total 525 listed companies that have been ST or ST* in the past three years 1:2 matching non-specially processed companies as research objects to reflect the financial crisis of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies.Based on the annual report data of the listed companies for t-1 years and t-2 years,respectively counting18 related financial indicators(industry competition concentration and VaR values in historical simulation methods).Correlation analysis screens out influencing factors.Logistic regression is used to construct risk early warning models and verify changes in forecast accuracy of financial risk early warning models that incorporate VaR indicators and industry competition.This research can provide a high recognition rate for the prediction of financial risks of listed companies,and provide a reference basis for the early warning of financial risks of enterprises.