| Anti-money laundering effectiveness has become the focus of the international community in recent years,how to strengthen anti-money laundering regulations of cross-border money laundering and specific areas of non-financial,is the urgent requirements for many countries to improve the anti-money laundering supervision.how to identify money-laundering flow is very important to improving the effectiveness of anti-money laundering,due to evolution function of money laundering.However many studies on money-laundering flow are based on macroscopic variables and little literature is finished from the perspective of preference.The Walker Gravity Model,which considers factors such as economy,politic,society and regulatory,from quantitative perspective,is recognized by many researchers.But with the relative lack of microscopic theoretical basis,the model failed to help explain why many money laundering flow to a region or country.In this background,this paper studies money-laundering flow from the perspective of money launderer’s preference,elaborates money launderers behavior preference characteristics under rules driven and goal driven,constructs the preference’s Walker Gravity Model on the basis of preference hierarchy theory,Solve why the money launderers choose an overseas destination or members involved in money laundering,and provide theoretical support for our country to perfect money laundering risk assessment and Anti-money laundering macro-prudential regulation.The results showed that under analysis framework of preference hierarchy theory,domestic money launderers choose to take money laundering in mainland with a growth trend of cross-border money laundering.money launderers think highly of safety and are more preferred to avoiding regulatory,trusted environment,hidden shortcut and the size of the market.Language,geographic distance and Chinese population are the basic influence factors when money launderers choose an overseas money laundering destination,and foreign direct investment is the main way of cross-border money laundering,overseas money laundering destination preference has stable characteristics,and logistic regression model was constructed to measure the possibility of mainland money-laundering flowing into an overseas region or country.Then work out the global distribution of overseas money laundering destination preference under the preference’s Walker Gravity Model,money launderers’ overseas destination preference weight accounted for 93.60% before the 20 countries or regions,Successively including Hong Kong,Taiwan,Macao,Luxembourg,Norway,Switzerland,Singapore,the United States,Denmark,Australia,Canada,Sweden,the Netherlands,Japan,Ireland,Austria,Finland,Belgium,Iceland,Germany.Finally according to the empirical conclusions,this paper combs the choice preferences of participants in money laundering and corresponding money laundering methods,such as business cooperators,trade partners,underground illegal private bank personnel,financial institutions and non-financial specific personnel,meanwhile analyses the influence factors which strengthen money laundering collaboration,and puts forward the anti-money laundering policy suggestions. |
