Research On Formation And Evolution Of Complex Engineering Social Risk Based On CAS Theory

With the rapid development of the economy,the gradual progress of science and technology,and the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,a large number of complex engineering such as major infrastructure have emerged.Complexity is an important feature of complex engineering,and it is also an important factor affecting the performance of complex engineering.Usually it is easy to cause social risk events,affect social stability,and threaten the development of urbanization.At present,the social risk management of complex engineering usually follows the three steps of risk identification,risk analysis and risk response.The research methods are relatively comprehensive,but complexity analysis is rarely used.Therefore,from the perspective of complexity,this paper studies the formation and evolution of social risks in complex engineering based on the Complex Adaptive System(CAS).The paper identifies complexity factors and social risk events through literature,collects data through expert interviews,and uses Bayesian networks to build complex engineering social risk formation models to visualize the relationship between project complexity and social risks caused by complexity.The results show that compared with the technical complexity in the objective sense,the impact of technical complexity at the cognitive level is relatively low;the complexity of the organization,especially the management capabilities of complex project teams,has a significant impact on social risk events;regardless of the perception of benefits or safety concerns,residents' satisfaction is one of the important environmental complexity factors affecting social risks.In order to simulate the self-organization and self-adaptive change process of each adaptive subject in the social risk management system,this paper is based on Agent modeling and simulation,and uses reinforcement learning Q-learning to build a complex engineering social risk evolution model.The study found that after the outbreak of social risk,the risk management attitude of managers is more important than the intervention time.Actively handling it in the early stages of social risk outbreak can shorten the risk governance time;communication efficiency and connection probability(representing the strength of public relations)affect information transmission and exchange of the public.Lower communication efficiency can reduce the number of protesters and appealers,and strong public relations may lead to more appealers and protesters.Stronger public relations will accelerate withdrawal if the managers guide actively.Finally,based on CAS,a “detection-effect” governance model is established.Social risk governance measures of complex engineering are proposed for the characteristics of formation and evolution in order to minimize the negative impact of social risk.This paper provides a new method and perspective for the study of social risks in complex engineering,and provides a certain theoretical support for future research on risk management of complex engineering.