Research On Swarm-based Simulation For The Policy Of Oil

Petroleum is the significant strategic energy for a country, since the security and stability of the oil market is directly related to the national security.?Although being a vast country, China is not quite rich in petroleum resources. Coupled with the rapid social and economic development, the demand for oil resources is constantly increasing.Since 2009, China's crude oil imports dependence degree is 50% above the warning line, which leads to the growing intense conflict between the supply and demand in oil market. Based on these reasons, the oil market's self-regulation can not guarantee the stability of the oil market, thus the government's regulation policy is necessary to guide and control the market.Despite of the special status of petroleum, the oil market still belongs to the field of economic research, thus this paper focus on Chinese government's regulation and control policies for the oil market, which include such as the special oil income tax and other costs as well as resource taxes or other price adjustment means.The major players in the oil market are miners, dealers and petrochemical companies, etc. Besides, there are some other affecting factors such as the properties of oil resources, petroleum refinery products, consumer demands along with government policies.These participants play individual roles in the oil market, and depend on each other as a nonlinear relationship, exchanging energy, material and information so that to produce aggregate results.The system posed by these market players owns the logo, the mechanism of internal models and building blocks. The feasibility of studying the oil market by the complex adaptive system can be demonstrated from the characteristics and mechanism respect.Based on the complex adaptive system theory, this paper, combined with the need of policy research, delimit the three major categories in this system: miners, dealers and petrochemical companies. The oil market is seen as the environment where the major players act, the three categories as well as the government, on one hand, play their own roles, on the other hand, impact the properties of the overall market. The experiment, by changing the tax collection rate, etc., simulates the changes of the oil market and those main categories when government policies change.According to the analysis of data accumulated for many years and imported form Daqing and Shengli oil field, the average error between the results and reality is less than 20%, which proved the availability of the model. The research resulted from the verification of the model parameter configuration and the adjustment of the tax rates and other properties. The study test and verifies the active role played by the government's tax policy for the smooth operation of the oil market. However, if the policy always remains the same, the effectiveness of the control will be invalid after a certain period of time. In addition, the regulatory effect the taxes can play is still limited, which means various means should be utilized to ensure the safety of the oil market. This study carried out experiments from several aspects and draws various research conclusions, which offer the reference and basis for the actual adjustment of government policies.