Design And Pricing Of Weather Index-based Insurance Products For Tea Planting

Global climate's change has exacerbated the occurrence of meteorological disasters,and the risks of meteorological disasters facing agricultural production are becoming increasingly severe.Agriculture is the foundation of a country.As a large agricultural country,the impact of frequent disasters and fluctuating climate on China's agricultural production can not be accurately estimated.With the continuous increase of China's agricultural insurance demand,weather index insurance has become an important driving force for diversified and innovative development of agricultural insurance.Weather Index-based Agricultural Insurance's research is becoming increasingly important.This article takes Anxi County,Fujian Province as an example to study the design and pricing of weather index insurance products for tea planting.By analyzing the climate profile of Anxi and the historical meteorological disasters of tea,the meteorological disaster factors of Anxi tea were selected to construct the weather index.The linear moving average method is used to separate the unit output of the meteorology to construct the unit output fluctuation rate and the meteorological unit output loss rate.Constantly adjust the weather index threshold and detrending step to continuously match the linear relationship between the weather index and the yield loss rate of the meteorological unit,and compare the goodness of fit R2 to determine the optimal relationship model and the weather index trigger value.Fit the weather index distribution,use the optimal relationship model between the weather index and the yield loss rate of the meteorological unit,calculate the insurance premium rate,and formulate a compensation plan.The main research conclusions of this article are as follows:?1?Compared with traditional agricultural insurance,the advantages of weather index insurance products are:reducing moral hazard and adverse selection risk,improving payment efficiency,and reducing transaction costs.The disadvantages are:complex design,reliance on long-term historical data,and basis risk.?2?China's agricultural weather index insurance pilot work started late,but as of December 2017,the pilot work has exceeded 40,involving more than ten provinces and more than 20 crops.During the pilot,some problems were also exposed,including the low enthusiasm of farmers for insurance,lack of meteorological station resources,and a certain level of basis risk.?3?Index the Anxi tea hazard factors,and use correlation analysis to screen out three weather indexes that have a significant effect on the unit yield of Anxi tea,including the continuous rain index during spring tea picking,the frost damage index during budding to leaf development,and high temperature index during summer.Under the optimal relationship model,the detrending step length is 5 and the trigger value of the frost damage index?W₁?is 7 Celsius.The trigger value of the continuous rain index?W₂?is 5 days and the trigger value of the summer high index?W₃?is 8 days.?4?Calculate the weather index expectation from the corresponding optimal distribution.Combined with the optimal relationship model between the weather index and the yield loss rate of the meteorological unit,the net insurance premium rate is 10.56%and the gross premium rate is 15.3%.