Research On The Driving Mechanism And Transformation Of Urban Land Financial Dependence In China

Land finance has its rationality in all stages of urban development,but it needs to be constantly adjusted to meet the requirements of urban development.With the continuous progress of China's society and economy,the disadvantages of over-reliance on the traditional land finance model have become increasingly prominent,causing social adverse effects such as the inefficient spread of urban and the imbalance in the provision of public services.Actively exploring a healthy and sustainable development path of land finance has gradually become a hot topic of regional sustainable development research.Preventing and dissolving the potential risks of land finance is one of the main issues that should be faced when seeking the path to healthy and sustainable development.Objectively and reasonably weighing the shortcomings of the land finance itself and its positive impact on regional development and scientifically selecting the structural optimization strategy or transformation plan from the perspective of mechanism analysis are the focus of this study.Therefore,following the logic of ?analyzing feature,exploring the causes,learning experience,thinking and promoting proposals?,this study investigated the development tendency of China's current land finance model,the driving mechanism of dependence,and the experience of land finance transformation at home and abroad,and then formulated differentiated development plans.Achievements and main findings derived in the study are as follows:(1)From 2008 to 2016,China's land transfer area and total transaction value increased first and then decreased;the scale and dependence of urban land finance have increased generally,and both have shown significant differences in major three areas(eastern,central and western)and with the size of urban populations.Land finance dependence has a significant spatial agglomeration effect for Moran' I of 268 prefecture-level cities in 2008,2012,and 2016 were 0.269***,0.131***,and 0.210***,respectively.The overall spatial distribution of the high-high land fiscal clustering area was a "two belts" distribution pattern(coastal urban belt and cities along the Yangtze River).(2)There was a significant spillover effect of land financial dependence.For every 1% increase in the average dependency of neighboring cities,the land financial dependence of this city would increase by 0.236%;similar spatial spillovers would occur in other explanatory variables.It is found by region that fiscal pressure has a higher influence on the central and western regions,and the development of the real estate market and industrial upgrading have a stronger driving effect on the eastern region.In addition,eastern cities have also proven that macroeconomic environmental factors such as per capita GDP,population density,and consumption levels will have a negative impact on dependency;research by time period found that,compared to 2008-2013,the explanatory power of various factors has declined in 2013-2016,and the utility of land finance has shown a downward trend.(3)In China,the central government has carried out the top-level design of land financial transformation orderly through long-term institutional reforms such as the fiscal system and land management system,as well as short-term means such as macro-control of real estate;local governments have strictly controlled the real estate market,changed land transfer strategies,shifted to stock land development,and actively implemented the new financing model of public product supply to optimize the land financial structure.The key to the transformation of the United States is to alleviate the financial pressure through sustainable fiscal and tax construction,and match the fiscal rights and powers of local governments;Hong Kong is currently establishing a multi-target land value-added income capture model to strengthen real estate ownership,circulation,and contract amendments.(4)The basic principles of land financial transformation include the principles of sustainable development,fairness and efficiency,multi-objective principle and stability.According to the transformation potential,268 prefecture level cities are divided into conditional transformation cities,cities with insufficient conditions and cities with difficulties in transformation.It is suggested that cities with conditional transformation should speed up the formation of a new sustainable land financial model by optimizing the government functions,tapping the potential of the city,reforming the land transfer system and scientific management,and promote the transformation of neighboring cities by spillover.Cities with difficulty in transition should take the activation of urban development as the main goal,but they must strengthen the sustainability of land finance through structural optimization.Cities with inadequate conditions should focus on renewing the momentum of urban development to strengthen regional socio-economic stability,and reduce the demand for land sales finance through innovative financing models,and create a social and economic environment suitable for transformation.This study incorporates China's own exploration of land financial transformation into empirical learning,which breaks through the cognitive limitation of quantitative data lag to a certain extent.On this basis,differentiated reform and development proposals are proposed from the perspective of trade-offs,which effectively improves the practical reference value of the research results.Comprehensive consideration of the issue of land use right renewal and the reform of the land transfer system are the in-depth directions for the future research of land financial transformation.