Correlation Analysis Of Price Fluctuations Of Residential Commercial Houses In My Country's First- And Second-tier Cities

The real estate industry occupies a dominant position in the development of China's national economy.The price of residential commercial housing is not only a hot spot of concern for the general public,but also affects the development and progress of our economy.For the house price,the most important thing is not only the current price of commercial housing,but the future housing price trend and its development momentum in the real estate market.In recent years,China's commercial housing prices have been rising steadily.In 2019,the average price of residential commercial housing in first-tier cities has exceeded 40,000 RMB,and Those in second-tier cities have reached 20,000 RMB.Although the housing prices of second-tier cities are quite different from those of first-tier cities,their development trends are strongly related to those of first-tier cities.This is an important breakthrough in predicting the prices of second-tier cities.Therefore,in this thesis we make use of the prices of residential commercial housing in first-tier cities to study the housing prices in second-tier cities.This thesis explores the house price in first-tier and second-tier cities from the theoretical and empirical analysis.The theoretical analysis consists of three parts.First,We compare the major real estate indicators with the GDP,Fully demonstrated the status of the real estate industry in the national economy in China.Secondly,we analyze the correlation relationship between the first-tire cities and second-tire cities.Finally,we analyze the development stage of China's real estate in combination with national policies.The empirical analysis consists of two parts.First,we define the K-phase growth rate,which extends the traditional concepts,we analyze the growth rate of residential commodity house prices from the derivative estimation and the K-phase growth rate.Secondly,This paper analyzes the driving force of first-tier to second-tier cities through a new perspective,establishes a non-parametric,uses the locally weighted least absolute deviation(LowLAD)derivative estimation method to test the linkage of house prices in large and medium-sized cities,and studies the fluctuations of first-tier and second-tier cities in China.It is found that there is a strong linkage between them.Finally,the strong correlation relationship can be demonstrated by ARIMAX model.We draw the following conclusions based on the real data analysis.First of all,Shanghai and Beijing played a leading role in four first-tier cities and second-tier cities,and meanwhile the first-tier had a significant driving effect on the second-tier.These conclusions have opened a new page in the status quo and unproven status of the linkage of residential commodity housing prices,especially in the first-tier and new first-tier cities whose influence has increased significantly in recent years.Secondly,Guangzhou and Xiamen are first-tier and second-tier cities,respectively.Although the price of commodity housing in Xiamen has reached the level of first-tier cities,it still has a lag compared with the other three first-tier cities.For the first-tier city Guangzhou,its housing prices are much lower than those of the other three first-tier cities,and are close to the new first-tier cities.Finally,we forecast the mean housing price in Jinan by adding the impact of Beijing and Shanghai.The forecasting price is closer to the real price than the case without the impact of Beijing and Shanghai.