Research On Uncertainty And Vulnerability Of Supply Chains In Incidents Situation Based On The Inoperability Input-output Model(IIM)

In recent years,incidents such as safety accidents,natural disasters happened frequently.Supply chain operations are at great risk.The supply chain is a complex economic network,in which economic relationship between nodes is intricate.Besides,the high degree of control over system redundancy in lean operations,the supply chain becomes increasingly vulnerable to incidents.Incidents have a direct strike on the supply chain.Its impact spreads throughout the supply chain network,and even causes the supply chain disruption,brings a huge crush to the entire network.Therefore,in order to improve the robustness and flexibility of supply chain,it is very important to analyze the impact of incidents on supply chain,and to research the uncertainty and vulnerability of supply chain to incidents.This thesis discusses the impacts of emergency incidents on supply chain networks from these two different types of turbulence triggered by emergency incidents.An uncertainty analysis model is built based on the supply chain IIM(Inoperability Input-output Model)and the Monte Carlo simulation.This thesis has a uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to predict the frustration degree of supply chain as well as identify the key nodes.To make further efforts in analyzing how turbulence propagating among supply chain networks,the DIIM(Dynamic Inoperability Input-output Model)is applied to the research of supply chain risk management,and an analysis model is built to evaluate and measure the vulnerability among nodes in supply chain networks.A supply chain simulation example of down and feather garment,which was affected by the H7N9 avian influenza,is used to illustrate the analysis model application as well as prove its feasibility.The simulation example shows the whole process of turbulence propagation and finds out that the turbulence will be passed from one node to the others to different degrees.The incidents response strategies given by the author are verified in the example and it proves that the change of key elements between nodes in supply chain networks will affect the way how turbulence propagates.