R&D Investment,Industrial Structure And Economic Growth

In recent years,with China’s economic development entering the "new normal",promoting the upgrading of industrial structure through innovation has become an important focus of economic growth.Therefore,to master the relationship between R&D investment,industrial structure and economic growth is of great theoretical and practical significance to improve the industrial structure adjustment policy,reasonably allocate innovative resources,stabilize economic growth and realize the healthy and sustainable development of regional economy.At present,scholars mostly discuss the relationship between R&D investment,industrial structure and economic growth.This paper will study the overall relationship between the three.Based on the literature and classical theory of R&D investment,industrial structure and economic growth,this paper analyzes the relationship between R&D investment,industrial structure and economic growth based on panel data of thirty-one provinces in China from 2000 to 2018.Due to the periodic change of industrial structure,this paper selects Hansen panel threshold effect model,objectively divides the different stages of industrial structure,and analyzes the relationship between R&D investment and economic growth at different levels of industrial structure.Taking the ratio of the tertiary industry to GDP and the ratio of the secondary industry to the primary industry as the threshold variables of the industrial structure,this paper describes and analyzes the regional characteristics of the relationship among the three regions.The empirical results show that: 1.There are threshold effects between R&D investment,industrial structure and economic growth.Hansen threshold effect model objectively divides industrial structure into different stages,and the effect of R&D investment in each stage on economic growth is significantly different.From the national point of view,the higher the level of industrial structure,the more obvious the role of R&D investment in promoting economic growth;from the regional point of view,when the threshold variable is the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP,there is a single threshold effect in the eastern and central regions,while the threshold effect in the western region is not significant.When the ratio of the second industry to the first industry is taken as the threshold variable of industrial structure,there are double thresholds in the eastern region,but the results of threshold effect test in the central andwestern regions are not significant.2.R&D investment can promote economic growth by adjusting industrial structure.From the national data,when the level of industrial structure exceeds the threshold,the effect of R&D investment on economic growth changes from not significant to significantly positive,that is,only when the industrial structure reaches a certain threshold,increasing R&D investment can significantly improve the efficiency of economic growth.Therefore,R&D investment can promote economic growth by adjusting industrial structure.From the empirical results at the regional level,taking the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP as the threshold variable of industrial structure,when the industrial structure in the eastern region exceeds the threshold value,the impact coefficient of R&D investment on economic growth changes from 0.0931 to 0.2076,that is,the change of industrial structure will promote the positive impact of R&D investment on economic growth.In the central region,when the industrial structure exceeds the threshold,the impact of R&D investment on economic growth changes from insignificant to significant positive.When the ratio of the second industry to the first industry is taken as the threshold variable of the industrial structure,when the industrial structure level of the eastern region is lower than the first threshold,the R&D investment has a restraining effect on the economic growth,but when the industrial structure of the eastern region exceeds the second threshold,the threshold effect of the R&D investment on the economic growth changes from not significant to significantly positive.Therefore,we can adjust the industrial structure to promote the impact of R&D investment on economic growth.3.There are regional differences in the threshold effects of R&D investment,industrial structure and economic growth.When the threshold variable is the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP,there is a single threshold effect in the East and the central region,while the threshold effect in the west region is not significant.The threshold value of eastern region is 46.3776%,that of central region is 32.3191%,and that of eastern region is higher than that of central region.In the eastern region,when the industrial structure exceeds the threshold,the influence coefficient of R&D investment on economic growth changes from 0.0931 to 0.2076,that is,the upgrading of industrial structure will promote the role of R&D investment on economic growth.When the industrial structure of the central region exceeds the threshold,the influence coefficient of R&D investment on economic growth changes from insignificant to significant positive.When the ratio of the second industry to the first industry is taken as the threshold variable of industrial structure,the double threshold effect in the eastern region is significant at the 5% confidence level,but not in the central and westernregions.When the industrial structure level of the eastern region is lower than the first threshold,R&D investment will hinder economic growth,but when the industrial structure of the eastern region exceeds the second threshold,the threshold effect of R&D investment on economic growth changes from insignificant to significant positive.Therefore,the central and western regions should speed up the upgrading of industrial structure;the eastern region should make full use of its resources and regional advantages,increase the intensity of R&D investment,and promote economic growth.