Research On Credit Risk Of Urban Investment Debt In China

After years of development,China's urban investment bonds have reached a scale of 7.9 trillion yuan,and it has become one of the important varieties in the bond market.With the release of the "State Council's Opinions on Strengthening Local Government Debt Management"("Circular 43"),the relationship between urban investment bonds and local government bonds has been cut off in a legal sense.However,the urban investment company had to bear a large amount of local government debt because of undertaking public welfare projects,including infrastructure construction.Therefore,during the current period when the local government replaces the urban investment debt,the default risk of the urban investment debt is worth studying.Furthermore,with the substantial default of the "17th Corps Six Division SCP001" city investment debt,the city's "faith"has begun to shake.The incident also shows that the implicit guarantee of the government is not a panacea,and rigid payment can be broken.It is of great practical significance to pay attention to the credit risk of urban investment bondsBased on the data of 204 urban investment companies,this paper uses the Logistic-KMV hybrid model to measure the credit risk of urban investment bonds and analyzes its influencing factors.First of all,based on the overall framework of the fiscal and tax reform,the policy trend is taken as the time node to sort out the history of urban investment debt in the past 30 years.Then,empirical analysis is carried out with the influence of urban investment bonds' own solvency,government support,macro-political system environment and economic performance as indicators.In the empirical analysis,this article is based on the unique attributes of the urban investment main platform,combining the measurement elements of the two attributes of urban investment and non-listed companies,and using the improved KMV model to calculate the default of each urban investment main platform for different provinces Distance,and then use the calculated default distance and other financial indicators of the UDIC(including the company's solvency,profitability,growth capacity and operating capacity)as a logistic model for independent regression analysis and compare it with the UDIC Comparison of the latest corporate ratingsThe empirical results show that:1.The improved KMV model can play a good role in measuring the credit risk of urban investment companies.The public financial revenue replaces the traditional model of asset market prices,and the default distance of urban investment bonds in different provinces and cities to measure local governments The credit risk is significant.Second,the credit risk of local urban investment platform companies is also related to their own operating level,and the classic Logistic model has good applicability in financial crisis early warning.3.On the whole,by comparing the relationship between the probability of default and its latest subject rating,it can be found that the improved Logistic-KMV hybrid model is relatively impressive in measuring the risk capacity of urban investment companies,and has a certain forward-looking and accurate Compared with the original model,the degree has been greatly improved.Therefore,four suggestions are proposed:1.In order to control the overall credit risk of urban investment bonds,local defaults should be allowed;second,convert urban investment bonds into real local government bonds;third,rectify and merge scattered local government investment and financing Platform to establish a comprehensive classification management system to effectively control the spread of urban investment bond credit risk;fourth,the preparation and improvement of local government balance sheets should be accelerated.