Credit Risk Evaluation Model Of City Investment Bond Based On Score Card

In the process of large-scale urbanization in China,the fiscal decentralization system and the Budget Law restrict the local government from being faced with huge financial pressure in the economic construction,which has given birth to the rise of the city investment bonds.Because of the city investment bond bondage of government guarantees,market has formed a faith of rigid payment of the city investment bonds.However,under the policy trends of tightening the financing channels of city investment bonds and strengthening the management of local government debts,it is possible to expose,dispose and resolve the default risk of city investment bonds.Under the background,we study the theory and model of the credit risk of the city investment bond.Firstly,we introduce the history and current situation of the city investment bond.Over the past two decades,the city investment bond has been developing rapidly.Its scale is significantly affected by policies and regulations,and the recognition level of its credit rating is relatively weak.In recent years,negative and concern-based rating adjustments have increased.Second,we analyze the credit risk and its influential factors.Its credit risk comes externally,from such as local governments,macroeconomics and systems,and internally,from the bond itself and its operating platforms.The factors affecting its credit risk include the supportive ability and willingness of local governments,the operating conditions and the financial conditions of the city investment platforms.Then,we use the credit scorecard model based on multivariate Logistic regression to find the factors that affect the credit risk.166 indicators of 3965 city investment platform enterprises during 2014-2016 are selected to develop the model.The final model is determined through univariate analysis and multivariate analysis,and model evaluation and conclusion analysis are conducted.From the perspective of the indicator categories,the macroeconomic of the region and the financial position of the enterprise all have a significant impact.The overall forecast accuracy of the model is 90.11%.Based on the final model,we established a more practical scorecard,and case validation showed that the score was effective.Finally,we summarize the conclusions of this paper,and put forward corresponding suggestions and future research prospects.