Research On The Relationship Between International Capital Flow And Real Estate Price In China

As one of the representatives of emerging market economy,in recent years,China's international capital flows are no longer mainly in the form of foreign direct investment.The scale of international securities investment and other investment has expanded,which has a great impact on China's domestic real economy and financial market.As a pillar industry of the national economy,the real estate industry has also been directly or indirectly impacted.Since 2017,the financing channels of real estate enterprises have been gradually tightened,and many large-scale real estate enterprises have begun to seek overseas financing channels again.The impact of international capital market on the supply side of China's real estate market will be increasing with the gradual opening of the financial market.Therefore,under the background of gradual opening of capital account,it is necessary to study the interaction between international capital market and domestic real estate market through the real estate supply side.Taking the relationship between international capital flows and real estate prices as the research object,this paper combs the current situation of international capital flows and the real estate market in China.Based on the data of 30 provinces and cities from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2018,the dynamic relationship between various international capital flows and real estate prices is empirically tested by LSDV estimation with deviation correction.From the point of view of the real estate supply side,the panel vector auto regressive model is used to re-test,and the following main conclusions are drawn.Firstly,generally speaking,the net inflow of short-term international capital and other investment may cause the increase of real estate price growth rate,while the net inflow of direct investment may cause the decrease of real estate price growth rate,but the growth rate of real estate price can not be one of the main factor causing any kind of international capital flows.Secondly,other investment international capital flows and real estate price growth rate can interact through the supply side of real estate,but the interaction is somewhat weak.Thirdly,there are differences in the way and intensity of interaction between other investments and real estate price growth between the eastern,central and western regions of China.Unlike previous studies,on the basis of verifying the impact of various types of international capital flows on real estate prices,this paper further discusses the interaction between international capital flows of other investments and real estate prices from the perspective of real estate supply.This discussion complements the study about the interaction between international capital flows and real estate prices.Secondly,Combining with the research results,it is proposed that real estate should be promoted to return to its "commodity attributes",and that the real estate market should be promoted to return to rationality and norms from both demand and supply levels,and capital account opening should be carefully promoted.At the micro level,real estate enterprises should also actively adjust their capital structure to prevent financing risks.