Font Size: a A A

Study On Spillover Effect Of Housing Price Changes In Tianjin

Posted on:2020-04-05Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:G Y ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330602954729Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As a basic guarantee for the survival of residents and an important part of family property,the change of housing price has attracted more extensive social attention,and is also the focus of scholars’ research.In recent years,China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly,housing prices have obvious cyclical fluctuations,and inter-regional housing price spillovers are significant.This paper focuses on the fluctuation of housing price at the urban level and makes an empirical study on the spillover effect of housing price in Tianjin.Firstly,this paper reviews and summarizes relevant domestic and foreign literatures from three aspects:long-term determinants of housing price,short-term determinants of housing price,GVAR model and its application in the real estate market.Then it introduces the related concepts and economic explanations about the spillover effect of housing price.Then the selection of variables and the modeling of GVAR model were carried out,and finally the empirical results were analyzed and relevant policy Suggestions were put forward.In this paper,Tianjin is divided into 16 districts according to geographical location and official administrative region.The research focuses on the interaction of housing prices among these 16 districts,especially how the housing price impact in one region spreads to other regions.The novelty of this study lies in the use of GVAR model to study the spillover effect of housing price in a certain city.The previous GVAR model was mostly used to study the macro-level problems among countries.In addition,this paper not only studies the linkage effect of housing prices in various regions of Tianjin,but also discusses the impact of changes in public variables(money supply,benchmark interest rate,CPI,etc.)on housing prices in various regions of Tianjin.The conclusions of this paper may have significant policy implications for urban planning and public finance.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:there is a significant spillover effect of housing price among different regions in Tianjin,and the spillover effect is relatively obvious in the central urban area.Different regions are in different positions in the interaction of housing prices.Regions with rapid economic development or obvious regional advantages are in the leading position in the change of housing prices.The impact of the common variable has a greater impact on the overall housing market,but there is regional heterogeneity.Suburban areas and central urban areas with active housing turnover are most affected by the impact.
Keywords/Search Tags:Housing Price, Spillover Effect, Global VAR
PDF Full Text Request
Related items