Study On The Influence Of The Policy Adjustment Of Grain Tariff Quota In China

Grain is the basis of all production and living activities in China.Grain security is not only related to the food and clothing of the people,but also related to economic and social stability.Therefore,Grain security is the most important thing to national security.Tariff quota policy is a popular trade protection tool in the world.Its implementation and adjustment affects the grain trade,production,consumption.The research on the influence mechanism of China’s grain tariff quota policy is not only conducive to provide the decision-making basis to stabilize grain market,promote the sound development of grain market,but also conducive to response to international pressure leisurely and effectively in the future.The paper analyzes the current situation and environment of China’s current grain tariff quota policy from the aspects of foreign situation and environment,domestic market situation,WTO policies and negotiation progress.Then,the current situation of the implementation of China’s grain tariff quota is reviewed and compared with other major countries and regions in the world.Starting from the theoretical influence mechanism of tariff quota policy and taking corn as an example,the GTAP model was reclassified into countries and sectors,and a simulation scheme was set up to simulate the impact on the price,output and demand of corn and related industries after the tariff reduction of corn.On the basis of the simulation results of GTAP,the main corn producing provinces are classified into four major producing area,and the supply response model and consumption function are established to analyze the impact of each area.The results show that:1.The scale of China’s grain quota is still available.2.the contradiction of China and the United States has repeatedly upgrade at present stage,the United States has focus on the tariff quota policy in our country,and domestic grain prices down,but stable growth of grain production,domestic consumption growth will be in the future in our country face increasing pressure over a period of time,do not rule out the possibility of further liberalisation of tariff quota policy.3.When China’s corn import tariff is reduced,the domestic corn market suffers the biggest impact compared with other agricultural products and foreign corn market.Under the impact of imported low-cost corn,the price of domestic corn market fell,farmers’ planting enthusiasm decreased,resulting in a decline in corn output.The decline has led to an increase in corn demand,output and demand from corn-related industries,and corn prices and yields in corn exporting countries.4.From the perspective of the main area of corn production,as corn prices fall,planting area enlarged,industrial and feed consumption increased.And the more sensitive to corn price,the production and consumption are more affected,in which the northwest region is the most affected in planting area,and the north region is the most affected in corn consumption.According to the above results,this paper puts forward some policy implications from three aspects: improving the price support policy to stabilize grain production,cautiously opening the corn market,enhancing the orderliness of corn import,clarifying the bottom line of market access,and sticking to the negotiating position of agriculture.