Research On The Influence Mechanism Of American Manufacturing Return Policy On Shandong Province's Economic Development

In 2008,the United States experienced the subprime mortgage crisis,which led to a global financial crisis.Scholars in the industry have reflected on this phenomenon,believing that the decoupling between the development of the financial industry and the real economy is the essential reason for the "Minsky moment" that finally made the United States experience economic development.After the financial crisis,the U.S.government realized the importance of developing the real economy,so it began to carry out the policy of manufacturing industry return,intended to revive the U.S.manufacturing industry,and tried to get out of the dilemma of the U.S.economic development.Since the implementation of the manufacturing industry policy,it has achieved remarkable results.A series of measures have been taken,such as reducing foreign investment,transnational enterprises moving back to the U.S.mainland,and strengthening infrastructure construction In this process,the policy of "America first" has led to the change of international economic pattern.Along with American trade protectionism,the implementation of manufacturing industry return policy has an inevitable impact on China's economic development.Based on the background of US manufacturing reflow,this paper takes Shandong Province as an example to study the impact mechanism of manufacturing reflow from the perspective of FDI and financial industry agglomeration,constructs a VAR model,and draws the following conclusions: The implementation does not affect the economic development of Shandong Province at the beginning of the formulation.The specific point of time for the specific impact of the policy is 2012.There are two paths of influence,one is the path of FDI,and the other is the path of industrial agglomeration.The two are related to each other and together constitute the general path of impact on the economic development of Shandong Province.(1)In terms of the transmission path of FDI,in the early stage of the implementation of the U.S.manufacturing industry return policy,the inflow of foreign capital in Shandong Province was affected by the attraction of China's investment environment,and attracting foreign capital had an inflow inertia advantage.The return of U.S.manufacturing industry did not cause a strong impact on the utilization of foreign capital in Shandong Province.With the passage of time,the manufacturing industry return policy is gradually implemented in the United States,and the foreign investment coefficient changes from positive to negative,and the deterioration isobvious.(2)In terms of industrial agglomeration,multinational companies have made the transformation of industrial transfer and business focus,which has led to the reduction and even loss of Shandong Province's labor factor endowment and capital factor endowment,while the financial industry,as a productive service industry,has correspondingly lost the foundation for capital allocation and customer service,which has impacted the development environment of the financial industry,leading to the financial industry in Shandong Province The decrease of agglomeration degree.(3)The influence intensity of the two paths has different performance in different periods.In the process of economic growth,the initial economic growth benefits from the introduction of foreign investment,but with the passage of time,the impact of financial industry agglomeration on economic growth is higher than that of foreign direct investment.Finally,the paper gives some policy suggestions through the conclusion of empirical analysis.