The Influence Of U.S. Manufacturing Re-shoring On The China/North America Route

After the financial crisis in2008, the U.S. government puts moreemphasis on the development of manufacturing industry. Besides, thecost advantage in China is gradually weakening. So under the influencesof multiple factors, the U.S. manufacturing is heading back. This trendwill have a great effect on the Sino-US trade. And since shipping demandis the derivative of international trade, the China-North America will alsobe affected.Firstly, the status and reasons of the U.S. manufacturing re-shoringand its influences on the Sino-U.S. trade are analyzed. As the tire industryis one of the seven industries that are near the point of re-shoring, thispaper takes the tire industry for example for the intensive study. InChapter3, the cost structure of tire is studied and selects several variablesare selected to analyze their influence on China’ tire export to the U.S. inChapter4. The conducted Johansen co-integration test indicates that inthe long term, the growth of Chinese labor cost and raw material cost, thereduction of US energy cost and the appreciation of RMB will lead to thedecline of China’ tire export to the U.S. At last, a three-dimensionaldiagram of shipping demand, shipping demand and freight rate is drew through MATLAB and the functional equation is fitted. According to theforecasting demand and supply, the freight rate can be estimated underthe influence of U.S. manufacturing re-shoring. The result indicates thatthe freight rate will continue decreasing in the near future and the U.S.manufacturing re-shoring will make the shipping market even worse.This thesis focuses on the hot topic of U.S. manufacturingre-shoring and tries to analyze the influence of this trend on the shippingmarket. The results can provide some reference to shipping lines.