Study On The Effect Of Debt Level Of Coastal Cities On The Utilization Efficiency Of Construction Land In China

Optimizing the allocation of production resources of population,land and capital is the key path to promote China’s efficient urbanization and solve the problem of urban land finance.Especially after the tax sharing system reform in 1994,the "land finance" with land transfer fees as the core has gradually become a strong power to promote prban economic growth and the expansion of construction land scale.In this paper,we deeply analyze the effect of local government debt on the efficiency of urban construction land use in cities with different industrial development stages,and empirically analyze the effect of local government debt on the efficiency of urban construction land use in cities with different economic development levels and different local government cumulative debt levels,so as to provide reference for local government planning government debt.The paper also forecasts the utilization efficiency of urban construction land in the future,in order to provide reference and reference for the local governments of other non coastal cities in central and Western China.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)This paper quantifies the industrial development level of 51 cities along the coast of China,and obtains the comprehensive index of urban industrialization level according to the division standard of Chanery industrial development stage.Based on the different comprehensive index of urban industrialization,this paper empirically analyzes the effect of local government debt on urban construction land;use efficiency.The results show that the influence of local government debt on urban construction land use efficiency is different in different industrial stages:in 51 coastal cities of China,the influence of local government debt on urban construction land use efficiency is not significant in 15 cities,such as Yingkou and Xiamen,while the influence of local government debt on Urban construction land use efficiency is significant in 7 cities,such as Tianjin and Shanghai The debt of local governments in 29 cities,such as Jiangjiang and Yangjiang,has a significant negative impact on the utilization efficiency of urban construction land.(2)This paper further analyzes the non-linear effect of local government debt on the efficiency of urban construction land use,and makes an empirical study using the panel threshold model.The results show that:Taking the level of urban economic development(PGDP)as the threshold variable has double threshold effect,and the threshold response boundary is 267 and 51700 yuan.When PGDP<2.67,2.67<PGDP<5.17 and 5.17<PGDP,the impact of local government debt on urban construction land use efficiency is:no impact,negative impact and positive impact respectively;the cumulative debt level of local.government(SD)as the threshold variable has a single threshold effect,and the threshold response boundary is 15.83%.When SD<15.83%and SD>15.83%,the effect of new debt level on urban construction land use efficiency is positive promotion and negative inhibition respectively.City type identification shows that in the future,China should focus on the cities with negative response of both thresholds.The debt level of local governments in these cities has been divorced from the economic development of the city,and the cumulative debt level is beyond the scope of regional economic repayment.(3)In order to better provide reference and reference for non coastal cities such as central and Western China,this paper uses BP neural network model to predict the efficiency of urban construction land use.According to the prediction results of urban construction land use efficiency of 51 coastal cities in 2018,the average prediction accuracy is 61%.The forecast error is related to the accumulated debt level of local governments.When the accumulated debt level of local governments is over 15.83%,the error rate of BP algorithm neural network model in the prediction of urban construction land use efficiency is relatively,small,with an average of 36.08%;especially in the cities with the accumulated debt level of local governments over 50%,the error rate of BP algorithm neural network model is only 25.87%.On this basis,according to the BP neural network prediction model,the prediction results of urban construction land use efficiency of 51 coastal cities in China in 2020 and 2021 are obtained.This provides an effective way for local governments of many high debt cities to reasonably estimate the utilization efficiency of urban construction land.