| The rapid development of Internet finance has had a profound impact on people’s lifestyles and the operating model of the financial industry.As a typical product of Internet finance development,P2 P online lending has aroused academic discussion since its inception.From compliance to operation to supervision,P2 P online lending has developed along with controversy.This paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of P2 P online loan interest rates,divides P2 P online loan interest rates into two periods,analyzes the characteristics of online loan interest rate fluctuations by establishing a GARCH family model,and analyzes the reasons.The results of the empirical test show:(1)The fluctuation of P2 P online loan interest rate has risk accumulation,and the information in the early stage of the market will affect the later interest rate fluctuation.The volatility of the P2 P online loan interest rate with a longer borrowing period is greater than that with a shorter period.This is because in the P2 P online lending market with a short borrowing period,participants have greater liquidity.Regardless of the borrower or lender,the replacement frequency is faster,so the risk accumulation is weaker than the market with a longer borrowing period.(2)P2P online loan interest rate have varying degrees of asymmetric effects,but this asymmetric effect is contrary to mature financial markets,most of which are reflected in the impact of good news is greater than bad news,which reflects the participants of P2 P online loan market unable to realize the high risks behind high returns.(3)By examining the interactive effect of the P2 P online loan interest rate and Shibor,the results show that there is a spillover effect between the short-term P2 P online loan interest rate and Shibor,and the long-term interest rate interaction is not obvious.Therefore,the regulatory department can guide the P2 P online loan interest rate through the interactive effect to maintain the stable development of the P2 P online lending market.(4)It can be seen from the comparison of the regression results in the twoperiods that the regulatory policy has a certain role in regulating the development of the industry and reducing the risk,which is manifested in the reduction of the concentration of the risk of fluctuations in the P2 P online loan interest rate during the second period,but the policy effect of short-term interest rates is not obvious.In addition,the anti-leverage effect on the online loan market has not been effectively alleviated.Based on the empirical results,this article makes relevant recommendations.First,improve the regulatory policy.The regulatory department should establish targeted regulatory measures based on the volatility characteristics,speed up the construction of the credit reporting system and improve the market information disclosure system.Second,improve industry self-discipline.The industry should establish a unified risk assessment and control system,establish self-regulatory organizations to conduct self-regulation.The platform should establish clear system specifications and strengthen standardized operations.Finally,guide investors to invest reasonably.Increase publicity,promptly disclose information on non-compliant platforms,increase investor risk awareness,strengthen investor education and establish rational investment awareness. |
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