Research On The Volatility Of China’s Online Loan Interest Rate

The online lending industry has opened up a new financing channel in China,which has alleviated the capital needs and financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals.The fluctuations of online lending rates in recent years have affected the optimal allocation of resources and the interest rate of online lending.The trend of high and low has also been concerned by all walks of life.Online lending rates have gradually become an inseparable part of the entire interest rate system.Because they were originally born in the innovative environment of Internet finance and lacked certain interest rate control constraints,there is a certain difference and connection with traditional interest rates.This paper takes the online loan interest rate as the main research object to explore whether it has the significant characteristics and spillover effects of volatility,and summarizes the current characteristics of online lending interest rates from the perspectives of geographical distribution,platform type and transaction ratio,and analyzes the related reasons behind these characteristics.Comparative research and correlation analysis with traditional interest rates,selecting Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(Shibor)and Wenzhou Index as reference objects,through literature research and reasoning deduction,using information asymmetry theory,micro market structure theory The financial crisis contagion theory and other qualitative analysis of the fluctuation conduction path and mechanism of interest rates;the selection of daily sample data supplemented by statistical analysis,and the use of ARCH model,GARCH and EGARCH models,VAR-GARCH-BEKK model and other empirical measurement models The volatility characteristics of online lending rates and the interactive spillover effects between interest rates were quantitatively studied,research shows:(1)The numerical characteristics of online lending rates are subject to the non-normal distribution of peak and thick tails,and the fluctuations of online lending rates are characterized by conditional heteroscedasticity,volatility agglomeration and non-leverage characteristics.The Shibor and Wenzhou indices also disobeyed the normal distribution,but they all had obvious leverage effects.From the perspective of the standard deviation and the squared deviation,the online loan interest rate fluctuated more than the Shibor and Wenzhou indices.(2)The online loan interest rate has high-order continuous autocorrelation under the market’s spontaneous regulation effect,and its fluctuation is also affected by the traditional interest rate of formal financial institutions and private lending markets.In the long run,the interest rate of online lending and Shibor,Wenzhou There is a stable cointegration relationship in the index,and the regression coefficient shows that the online loan interest rate is positively correlated with Shibor and Wenzhou index.There is no Granger causal relationship between the online loan interest rate and Shibor,and there is no Granger causal relationship with the Wenzhou index.In terms of pulse effect,the online loan interest rate has short-term positive and negative impacts on Shibor and Wenzhou index,and the interest rate is asymmetric.Impact of impact(3)Spillover effect shows that Shibor has a one-way mean spillover effect on online lending rate,there is no mean spillover effect between Wenzhou index and online lending rate,and Shibor has one-way volatility spillover effect on online lending interest rate.Wenzhou Index and Net There is a two-way volatility spillover effect between loan interest rates.It can be seen that the interbank market has a strong one-way impact on the online lending market,and the online lending market and the private lending market have two-way effects.Finally,from the conclusions,we should give full play to the price discovery function of online lending interest rate,incorporate the online lending rate into the index system of macroeconomic regulation and control,and use the online lending rate as the reference basis for the implementation of the implementation policy by the regulatory agencies and observe and regulate the macroeconomic operation.The weapon of the weapon.Guide the role of online lending rates in optimizing the allocation of financial resources and other resources to promote maximum benefits in the process of serving the entire real economy.The characteristics and innovations of this paper are based on the analysis of the characteristics of online loan interest rate volatility.The comprehensive interest rate data of the industry is selected.From the macroscopic perspective,the Shibor and Wenzhou indices are selected for correlation comparison and systematic analysis to avoid the mechanism of interest rate volatility..The specific research value is to help the market participants to interpret the dynamic characteristics of online loan interest rate expectations,scientifically understand the correlation between online loan interest rate and traditional interest rate,and also help investors to analyze the relationship between online loan income and risk,and grasp the interest rate market for the public.The trend of change is instructive.