Research On The Impact Of Consumer Finance On China's Economic Growth

With China's economy entering the new normal,the traditional driving force of relying on exports and investment to stimulate economic growth can't continue,moving to the consumer market has become the focus of domestic departments.As a kind of financial demand for consumers,consumer finance mainly helps households(individuals)to carry out the related consumer activities smoothly by providing loans for them.In order to effectively exert consumer finance to boost China's consumer market and then to stimulate the positive role of domestic economic growth,from the stage of its initial consumer credit development to the current Internet consumer finance,policies have been introduced to encourage its development.Especially in recent years,consumer finance has been put on the national development agenda.However,after several decades of development,Whether consumer finance has achieved the desired effect of promoting domestic real economic growth,Whether there are any factors that hinder its effective promotion of economic growth,How to better realize its positive effects on economic growth?The settlement of these problems has a key guiding significance for the sustainable development of consumer finance in China and the healthy and stable growth of the domestic economy.Therefore,this article combines relevant theoretical basis,proceeding from the reality of China's consumer finance development,and empirically studying the impact of consumer finance on China's economic growth.This article reviews the definition of related consumer finance concepts,the theoretical basis of consumer finance and economic growth,the analysis of the mechanism of consumer finance's impact on economic growth,the domestic and foreign achievements of consumer finance and economic growth,to complete the preparation work related to the theme of this study.After that,this article analyzes the status quo of China's consumer finance development,mainly from the three dimensions of internal conditions,external conditions and constraints.Then,this paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2016,and respectively constructs panel VAR models of“consumer finance-consumption-economic growth”and“consumer finance-investment-economic growth" to empirically study the impact of consumer finance on economic growth from the two major transmissions of consumption and investment across the country and regions.The empirical results of this paper shows that:(1)There is a co-integration relationship between the variables under the two major transmission pathways from national and sub-regional perspectives.(2)Consumer finance continues to promote economic growth at both the national and regional levels.From the direct effect point of view,whether it is to consider the way of consumption or investment,national and regional consumer finance has a sustained positive effect on economic growth.From the perspective of indirect effects,under the conduction path of "consumer finance-consumption-economic growth" and"consumption finance-consumption-economic growth",both the national and regional consumer finances continue to substantially promote consumption and investment through consumption and The positive effect of investment on economic growth will further promote economic growth.(3)From the perspective of impulse response function and variance decomposition,consumer finance at the national and regional levels has little effect on the promotion of consumption,investment,and economic growth,and there are regional differences in the eastern>central>western regions.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this article proposes several policies and recommendations to the government,consumer financial institutions and consumers in order to better promote the development of consumer finance in China.