| With the continuous opening of China’s capital market,China’s securities market has been developing rapidly from scratch,sticking to the pioneering spirit and becoming increasingly prosperous.The healthy development of securities market is of vital importance to national security and people’s peace.In 2000,there were 1,088 A-share listed companies in China,but by the end of 2018,there were 3,567 A-share listed companies in China.In the past 18 years,China’s securities market continued to expand and the number of listed companies nearly tripled.With the establishment of China’s science and innovation board,the number of listed companies will continue to expand in the future.China’s listed companies are becoming irreplaceable forces as well as playing important roles in the healthy development of the socialist market economic system.Manufacturing industry,the main body of our national economy,occupies a pivotal position in all industries of our country,implying its importance is self-evident.At present,more than 2,000 of 3,000 and much A-share companies in China are manufacturing companies,which play irreplaceable roles in China.Since the reform and opening up 40 years ago,China’s manufacturing industry has been developing vigorously and continuously.In 2010,China’s manufacturing industry accounted for 19.8 percent of the global total,ranking first in the world.From 2010 to 2018,China’s manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world for many years.The vigorous development of manufacturing industry has formed a strong support for the growth of China’s GDP and the most solid foundation for China’s GDP.At present,China is in the critical process of transforming and upgrading from a"manufacturing power" to a "strong manufacturing country".However,with the rapid development of China’s securities market,there are risks at the same time.With the uncertainty of macro-economy and industrial environment,listed companies,especially manufacturing companies,are constantly facing new challenges.Facing with increasingly fierce competition,some companies’financial crisis is gradually emerging.After the listing of some manufacturing companies,they not only cannot achieve leap forward development effectively,but also fall into financial crisis due to their own operational strategy errors,improper management level and other problems.The occurrence of most financial crises is a process of gradual deterioration of financial conditions,and its manifestation has common characteristics.Therefore,there are ways to avoid financial crisis.It is possible that using financial early warning variables to predict the company’s financial situation,finding out all kinds of financial problems,issuing a warning signal and actively taking effective measures before the financial crisis could effectively reduce the risk,avoid the happening of the financial crisis,and help companies evergreen to realize sustainable management.This is undoubtedly conducive to the prosperity and stability of the society.With the financial early warning research still in the exploratory stage in our country at present,there are still some problems worth further discussion.Based on the literature review,this paper implements the research in the definition of financial crisis,the financial early warning and its influencing factors in-depth.According to the 1:1 scale in the same industry,the same accounting period,the number of similar equity scale of company as the control sample,this paper takes ST and Non-ST samples from 2016 to 2018 of the A-share manufacturing company to analyze their data from T-1 to T-3 years which stated as sample data.There are 94 companies in these sample companies.Later on,this paper reviews 282 annual reports and studies the accuracy as well as the applicability of Z-score model,F-score model and ZL model predicting financial crisis in our national securities market.This paper consists of the following five parts:The first part is the introduction.This part first explores the research background and significance and then summarizes the current research on financial crisis early warning at home and abroad and next sorts out the research content,research ideas and research methods.Finally it explores the tentative innovation points of this paper.The second part is the key concepts and basic theories related.This part firstly defines the key concepts of manufacturing industry,financial crisis and financial early warning and then sorts out the basic theories related to this study.The third part is A share manufacturing company financial warning status and theoretical analysis.This part firstly describes the current situation of financial crisis of manufacturing companies in China and then studies the current situation and causes of financial early-warning of A-share manufacturing companies.It finally analyzes the common characteristics of financial crisis and the logical deduction of variable selection of financial crisis.The fourth part is the data analysis of A-share manufacturing companies based on the comparison of Z model,F model and ZL model.Firstly it expounds the adjustment of model variables.Secondly it selects 18 samples of ST companies in 2016,15 samples of ST companies in 2017 and 14 samples of ST companies in 2018.Then according to 1:1 scale in the same industry,the same accounting period,the number of similar equity scale of Non-ST companies as the control sample.Then,Z model,the F model and ZL model are used to calculate the Z score,F score and ZL score of the three years preceding the 94 sample companies.Finally,comparing the calculated results with their corresponding model’s threshold,it analyzes comparatively the accuracy and applicability of Z model,F model and ZL model forecasting in our country and draw the corresponding analysis conclusion.The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion.This part firstly elaborates the research conclusions of this paper and then puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspective of supervision and the company itself.Finally,it discusses the limitations of this paper and points out some thinking points and directions for future research.This paper studies the accuracy and applicability of Z-model,F-model and ZL-model in forecasting A-share manufacturing companies by combining theory with practice,qualitative with quantitative,and in view of the special national conditions of China’s securities market.By analyzing the data of 94 A-share manufacturing companies from T-1 to T-3 years in 2016-2018,it enriches the theory as well as application value of Z-model,F-model and ZL-model in China’s securities market.The innovation of this paper is stated as follows.Firstly,this paper takes the lead in studying the prediction effect of ZL model with a large sample size system.At present,domestic researches on financial early-warning multivariate discrimination model mainly focus on Z model and F model,while very few domestic researches pay attention to ZL model.Different from existing domestic studies,this paper takes the lead in introducing ZL model by combining theory with practice and qualitative with quantitative,and conducts a comparative study with Z model and F model.This makes up for the relative weakness of ZL model in China,and enriches and improves the breadth and depth of the comparative study of multiple discriminant models in China.Secondly,this paper pioneers the special application of the current Z model and F model in China.Different from existing domestic studies,this paper takes the lead in discovering that F model is not applicable to A-share manufacturing companies in T-3 year,and Z model is not applicable to A-share manufacturing companies in T-2 year and T-3 year under the results of empirical study.This has enriched the domestic research results on the financial early warning multivariate discriminant model and has certain theoretical and practical significance.Thirdly,this paper selects the latest financial data to advance the effectiveness of previous research.Under the circumstances that listed companies develop rapidly,selecting the latest financial data as of the end of 2018 to study the financial warning model makes this paper reflect the financial situation of A-share manufacturing companies more realistically and occupy with more reference value.A number of domestic scholars have studied the effectiveness of financial warning model prediction in the previous period.In order to improve the effectiveness,this paper selects the latest three years of 2016-2018 samples and financial data across the six-year window of 2013-2018. |
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