Study On Management Of National Treasury Inventory In XJ County

With the rapid development of economy,fiscal revenue and expenditure at all levels are presents the fast growth the tendency,the lag of the balance of the Treasury caused more and more spare money,how to maximize the use of the idle stock funds,increasing the service efficiency of funds and get high profits,is all levels of the Treasury's pursuit of goals,to achieve this goal should be to the state Treasury stock balance to fine management.Central Treasury first since 2006 the balance of inventory management,from the preliminary test to the top-down layers of reform,the central Treasury stock balance the experience of the management practices for the local Treasury stock balance management provides a good model,but for each level of the Treasury is uneven,only in-depth analysis can achieve the precision of the Treasury stock balance at the county level management.Current XJ county to supervise and control the inventory balance control,mainly relying on experience,uncertainty,comparative analysis,through the model of calculation and determine the optimal calculation method and optimum predefined,make managers grasp of the retained amount has a more precise,it is conducive to strengthening the budget implementation management,establish the coffers of the medium and long term financial planning,thereby improving the financing management level.Therefore,the local Treasury can introduce funds management methods in line with its own characteristics,adjust and stabilize the cash flow of the Treasury,cooperate with local Banks to maintain and increase the value of funds,and greatly improve the enthusiasm of funds management.Firstly,it introduces the experience and practice of foreign Treasury inventory balance management,and points out the current situation and existing problems of China's local Treasury inventory balance management.Second,it analyzes the Treasury revenue,expenditure and inventory structure of XJ county,and points out the problems existing in the Treasury inventory balance management of XJ county.Thirdly,the product model of Holt-winter season in the exponential smoothing method is used to predict the inventory balance of XJ county Treasury in2018.The error analysis between the predicted value and the actual value is carried out,and the error rate of 1.67% is obtained to determine the accuracy of the predicted value.On this basis,the optimal inventory balance is calculated by using the inventory model and the random modelrespectively.By comparing the deviation between the calculated value of the two models and the actual value,the optimal calculation method is determined and the optimal inventory value is obtained.Fourth,carry out operation on the surplus inventory funds of XJ county;Fifth,to improve the XJ county Treasury inventory balance management put forward relevant Suggestions.The innovation of this paper lies in the use of inventory model and random model to calculate the optimal inventory balance of XJ county Treasury at the same time.Through comparative analysis,it is determined that the more accurate random model is more suitable for the calculation of the optimal inventory balance,which provides a guarantee for the Treasury inventory balance management of XJ county.Compared with the previous simple single model calculation,this paper fully considers the assumptions of the two models and the randomness of cash flow fluctuations,and makes a comparative analysis of the calculation results to confirm the correctness of the application of the random model.