Research On A Kind Problem Of Dynamic Inventory And Optimal Scheduling With Applications

This paper carries on the induction and the summary to the correlated domestic and overseas research; at the background of the manufacture practice of Packaging Material Company of Baosteel International, the sales forecasting model which is based on the costumer loyalty is set up. Considering a series of restriction conditions, the product scheduling model is found and the simulation method is used to solve the model. The classifying management strategy to the hot- rolling material is proposed which is based on the price of the material, the duration of the orders and the quantities of the orderings. The details are as follows.(1) The decision tree method in data mine is used on the analysis of the costumer loyalty for the first time; the basic algorithm is given and the arithmetic steps are shown; the case study is done on the data of the costumers; the characteristics of the costumers and the rules of classify to the loyalty are found. The time series model is used to analyze the production sale record of the company; the estimated sales of different kinds of productions during the next sale cycle are provided. At the same time, combined the information of the costumer loyalty, the "stable coefficient" is set to modify the forecasting numbers; the modified numbers are used as the final forecasting ones which are used as the decision support of the production inventory structure, and then the product plan in a single cycle could be made.(2) Taking the equilibrium manufacture and the optimization of the output as the object function and using the optimizing theory, the mix-manufacture-line scheduling model is set up; the foundation of the model which could promise the delivery is based on the orders and the forecast of the market, and the following factors are considered: the capacity of all manufacture lines, the parameters of different productions (such as the yield, the price, the duration, the modified period, the inventory and so on), the manufacture efficiency of different categories, the arts and crafts. The basic databases of manufacture are set up such as equipment database, production database, accessory database, the arts and crafts database, man-hour quota database and so on; the reasonable and effective manufacture scheduling method is proposed and the LINGO software is used to simulate the model; the simulation result shows the feasibility of the algorithm and the scheduling problem is well solved.(3) Considering the practical circumstance of the raw materials procurement and inventory management of the company and basing on the product orders, the raw materials are classified into four groups according to the following characteristics:the variation trend of the total price of raw materials, the duration of the orders and the quantities of ordering. According to the characteristics of each group, the optimal production batch size and re-order-point are given and the procurement and inventory strategies are made to supervise the activities of the company. Taking the raw materials and orders information in 2005 supplied by the company as the data source, the analysis and testing are made. The illustrated example shows the creativity and rationality of the model and the feasibility and reliability of the strategies.At last, the problems needed to be considered further are proposed and further research directions are pointed.