A Study On The Trade Effect Of Two-way Direct Investment In Shandong Province

With the development of economic globalization,the traditional international investment theory and international trade theory have begun to collide with each other,especially the emergence of multinational companies makes the relationship between investment and trade particularly close.The influence of international direct investment on the import and export trade of a certain country or region is more and more obvious.This paper is a study of the relationship between the two.On the one hand,it is conducive to the study of the investment and investment strategies of the country or region to adjust the scale of the import and export trade effect of the country or region.On the other hand,it is conducive to the coordinated development of the investment policy and trade policy at the macro-economic level of the country or region.As a strong province in China's economic development,Shandong Province not only has the status of investment home country,but also has the status of investment host country.This paper takes Shandong Province as the object to study the trade effect of two-way direct investment in Shandong Province.In recent years,Shandong Province has made great achievements in investment attraction,foreign investment and import and export trade,but there are also some problems: the trade scale effect of foreign direct investment is not significant;the trade volume of foreign trade is high but the product technology content is not strong;the trade speed and quality,scale and efficiency of import and export trade are not coordinated.Therefore,we can study the trade effect of two-way FDI on Shandong Province from the perspective of dual investment status,so as to improve the effect of two-way FDI on import and export trade,and then put forward corresponding reasonable countermeasures and suggestions.In terms of theory,this paper takes Shandong Province as the starting point,uses its dual identity of host country and home country,first arranges the theoretical research on the development and trade effect of two-way FDI,analyzes the theoretical mechanism of trade effect of direct investment,and draws the conclusion that the direct investment of a single enterprise with different investment motives has different effects on import and export.In empirical analysis,using the data of Shandong Province's total import and export trade,IFDI,OFDI,Shandong Province's per capita GDP,world's per capita GDP and RMB exchange rate against the US dollar from 1990 to 2017,a vector autoregressive(Va R)model is established,and then the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are carried out to explain the trade effect of two-way direct investment in Shandong Province.This paper also specifically divides Shandong Province into three regions to discuss the trade effect of each city in Shandong Province.Using the sample data from 2003 to 2017 to analyze the panel data,we can get the different trade effects of Shandong,Shandong and Luxi regions,so as to better carry out two-way investment in Shandong Province for different regions in Shandong Province The analysis of trade effect,in order to put forward more targeted economic development and trade and investment development suggestions.Under the current situation of economic development,we have come to the conclusion that OFDI in Shandong Province is export creation.From the perspective of improving the investment structure of OFDI and promoting the sustainable development of investment economy,we have come to the conclusion that the direct investment strategy should be defined as to continue to promote the development of OFDI,to invest the capital of most enterprises in OFDI in Shandong Province,to guide the investment flow of enterprises and form a huge OFDI investment return Report: IFDI has been growing steadily in our province.On the basis of ensuring the growth of IFDI,we will upgrade and improve the structure of IFDI to improve the quality and efficiency of its utilization.This paper studies the trade effects of two-way FDI in Shandong Province and concludes that in the long run,OFDI will produce creative effects on both import and export trade.Among them,the elasticity to import trade is 0.526,and the elasticity to export trade is 0.630;IFDI plays a substitution effect on import trade,and its elasticity is-1.46,which has a promotion effect of0.083 on export trade;from the perspective of impulse response analysis,OFDI also shows a promotion effect on import and export trade,while IFDI shows an export promotion effect at the initial stage in export trade,In the fourth stage(a = 0.0184),the export promotion effect was the largest,and after the fifth stage(a = 0.00228),the export of IFDI changed into the export substitution effect,IFDI has always been in the export creation effect in the import trade,which is not very consistent with the long-term results;from the analysis of variance decomposition,OFDI has the largest contribution to the export and import trade,29.65% and 19.34%respectively,while IFDI's contribution to the export and import trade is relatively weak,1.3%and 3.9% respectively.To sum up,the long-term co integration relationship and the impulse response analysis on the relationship between OFDI and import and export trade are consistent,and the long-term and dynamic impact of IFDI on the import trade effect is not consistent,but the overall trade contribution rate of IFDI to the trade effect of two-way direct investment is very weak,so there is no great contradiction between the two results,impulse response The dynamic impact that should be analyzed does not impact the result of IFDI import substitution in the long term.According to the long-term co integration relationship between variables,this paper can quantify the trade effect of two-way investment.