The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Consumption Of Urban Residents

Since 2008,governments have been constantly changing their economic policies to actively cope with the falling of economic brought by the financial crisis in order to speed up economic recovery,but these initiatives have also intensified the volatility and uncertainty of economic policy.Therefore,the uncertainty of economic policy has become the focus of economists and practitioners again.As a developing country that is speeding up the transformation of the market economy,the frequent changes of government officials' turnover,economic reform and macroeconomic regulation make the high level of the uncertainty index and the volatility of overall China's economic policy,and the fluctuating range of economic policy is high.Moreover,the instability of the economic growth mode of "heavy investment export and light consumption" in China is urgently to be solved in the context of "policy city".The thesis first analyzes and explores the uncertainty of China's economic policy.It is found that the amplitude and time of the index fluctuations are highly correlated with the changes in the macroeconomic environment or political events.In addition,the thesis analyzes the consumption status of urban residents in Hebei province from the consumption expenditure structure,regional GDP,per capita consumption expenditure and per capita disposable income,etc.Then,the thesis selects the index variables and uses the data of urban residents' consumption in Hebei from 2000-2015 years to establish OLS,VAR and PVAR models respectively.Through these models,the influence of the uncertainty of economic policy on the consumption of urban residents is explored from three angles of consumption structure,overall effect and regional effect.It can be concluded from the study that the impact of economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on the consumption of urban residents in Hebei Province,but the duration is not long,and the income has certain regulating effect on the impact.The impact on consumer projects is mainly in the areas of residence,transportation and communication,education,culture and entertainment.According to the results of the study above,the government should pay attention to the impact of uncertainty shock on consumption and maintain the stability and predictable of the policy,strengthen the role of government guidance,develop the consumer credit system vigorously,optimize resource allocation,improve the social security system,and the residents' consumption environment comprehensively,when macroeconomic policy is regulated.