The Impact Of Shadow Banking On The Stability Of China's Systemically Important Banks

Since the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007,financial markets around the world have been affected to varying degrees.After the crisis,the academic community began to reflect on the root causes of the crisis.Among them,the expansion of shadow banking is generally considered to be the main cause of the crisis.At the same time,how to conduct pre-regulatory and post-disposal of commercial banks that may have a huge negative external effect on financial markets and even the real economy during the crisis has become a hot spot of concern in the theoretical circles and national regulatory authorities.In 2010,Basel III was officially launched,and the concept of systemically important banks was first elaborated in the agreement.However,due to the low degree of securitization of China's shadow banking,its background and formation characteristics are very different from those of western developed countries.Whether shadow banking with this trait will endanger the stability of the domestic systemically important banking system has become a problem worth exploring.This paper will theoretically analyze the shadow banking and systemically important banking systems in detail,and use the 2007-2017 data combined with the Johansen cointegration test in time series analysis to analyze whether there is a synergy between the two.From the theoretical analysis,we conclude that shadow banking can be roughly divided into generalized shadow banking and narrow shadow banking according to the different classification criteria.At the same time,because the generalized shadow bank is broader in definition than the narrow shadow bank and the scope of scale statistics is wider,the effect of generalized shadow banking on the stability of the systemically important banking system is smaller than that of the narrow shadow bank.However,the existing business institutions and related businesses in China have a small scale of business that meets the definition of narrow shadow banking.Therefore,in theory,the negative impact of China's shadow banking on the stability of the systemically important banking system should not be overstated.From the empirical results,although the change of the generalized shadow banking business model has a certain degree of influence on the stability of the systemically important banking system,it is far less than the impact of macroeconomic changes on the stability of the systemically important banking system.At this stage of China's economic development,shadow banking,as a product of financial innovation,has not reached the level where the accumulated risks jeopardize the stability of the systemically important banking system.In the future development of shadow banking,we should combine theoretical research and practical experience,observe the operation of the shadow banking system and update the regulatory measures in a timely manner,so as to plan ahead and promote the development of China's shadow banking business under reasonable supervision.