Research On Rural Financial Investment Risk Model Of Postal Savings Bank Based On Pair Copula

Risk management is an important part of management.Financial market risk refers to the price changes caused by various factors in the financing market of capital flow and the possible losses in the future.With the increasing wealth of residents and the increasing concept of modern financial management,the demand for financial services has become more and more diversified.Interest rates,exchange rates and other factors have gradually become the market-oriented decisive price mechanism.At the same time,the financial regulatory authorities are constantly increasing their efforts to deepen financial reform.In order to adapt to the development of society and meet the financial needs of residents,postal savings banks have also accelerated the pace of innovation of products and services.Therefore,providing comprehensive,rational and personalized financial services for residents has become an inevitable trend for postal savings banks to expand their business and the focus of personal financial services development at this stage.The contradiction between the gradual enlargement of financial capital investment objects and the insufficient control of financial risk constraints has become increasingly prominent.Risk incidents have emerged in endlessly.Risk control in the development of rural financial products has become a key problem to be solved urgently in the current research and development of financial products of postal savings banks.In order to solve the current problems,we need to collect a large number of documents related to postal savings bank financial management,collate and summarize them,determine the research background and practical significance,and make a simple summary and elaboration.Based on the multivariate Copula function,this paper calculates various types of portfolio return in securities finance,and puts forward a series of hypothetical problems based on multivariate normal distribution,and puts forward some suggestions for the existing problems.In the actual use process,the traditional risk assessment Copula method is limited by many factors in the evaluation process,thus lesding to large errors in the evaluation results.Therefore,this paper uses risk assessment Pair Copula method to study the dependence relationship between multiple asset returns.The GJR model is constructed by the marginal distribution of return on assets,the Pair Copula decomposition model is constructed by default probability,the "default distance" of default rate is evaluated,and the multivariate distribution function of return on portfolio is created.Monte Carlo method is used to realize the coupling study of financial risk.Finally,the return on assets under the coupling risk is tested by simulation experiment.The portfolio is estimated based on the risk assessment tool CVaR.This paper takes four stock data traded by Shanghai Securities Center as an example,and uses Pair Copula-GJR-CVaR credit model to carry out experimental verification.Firstly,based on Pair Copula-GJR-CVaR credit model,a multi-variate distribution function of portfolio returns is created,and the future asset returns are simulated by Monte Carlo method.Secondly,the risk profile of each stock is calculated by using the risk assessment tool CVaR,and the potential economic value of each stock is analyzed.The minimum risk portfolio value and proportional portfolio value of the two models are made by comparing Pair Copula-GJR-CVaR credit model with t-Copula-GJR-CVaR model.Then the probability of credit risk and the risk of the company are evaluated through risk assessment to ensure the probability of portfolio risk,thus effectively avoiding investors' investment failure and reducing the possibility of investors suffering economic losses.Finally,it analyses the level of financial risk,gives different analysis to different users,and summarizes and compares the data mining technology which is more commonly used nowadays.It also compares and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the main mining technology and Pair Copula adopted in this paper.Through literature review,it expounds the feasibility of Pair Copula,and describes Pair Copula in detail.Pair Copula is used to build a risk data model,and the model is analyzed in depth.The basic characteristics of purchasing and financing are paid out,and the evaluation and effect feedback are given.