Research On Financial Risk Prediction Of Listed Transportation Enterprises

In recent years,the transportation industry has achieved leap-forward development in the process of continuous social and economic progress.The operation and development of transportation enterprises are also attracting the attention of the society.On the one hand,there are more representative enterprises with larger scales,and the social influence is greater.The transportation industry plays a very important role in the process of social and economic development.The operation safety is related to the development of many industries in the surrounding area.However,the unique historical business reasons and external competitive environment of the transportation industry have also attracted attention.China's transportation industry management has long been dominated by government intervention,resulting in relatively backward internal financial systems,and most companies often use large-scale debt management.The greater the negative effects of financial leverage,the greater the hidden dangers of financial risks.Therefore,it is important and necessary to forecast the financial risk status of transportation companies in order to understand and control financial risks in a timely manner.The prediction of financial risks of listed companies in transportation is mainly studied..First,on the basis of understanding related concepts and reviewing relevant research,the theory and model of financial forecasting are sorted out.Then,the financial overview of listed transportation enterprises is briefly described,and the financial risks of transportation enterprises and the main sources of risks and risk determinants are expounded.On this basis,this paper takes 66 listed transportation enterprises as research samples,and selects 20 indicators from five aspects: solvency,operational capacity,profitability,cash flow capacity and development capability,and optimizes them by factor analysis.Seven common factors are used as the final input variables for the model.At the same time,the financial status of the sample enterprises is defined and classified by cluster analysis.A BP neural network model for financial risk prediction of listed transportation enterprises is constructed.The model is divided into T-1 year prediction model and T-2 year prediction model.Finally,using the sample dichotomy method,the model training and accuracy test are carried out.It is found that the financial risk prediction model of the constructed transportation enterprise has a high prediction accuracy rate.In addition,the accuracy of the T-1 year prediction model is slightly higher than the T-2 year prediction model.