Research On Risk Identification And Prevention Of Guarantee Circle In Commercial Banks

In recent years,Chinese banking credit assets continue to deteriorate,one of the most important reasons is frequent outbreak of risk events in the guarantee circle.As an innovation in the guarantee business of commercial banlks,the guarantee circle loan has been hailed as the loan model that best suits China's national conditions.During the economic upswing period,the guarantee circle realized credit enhancement and increased the financing methods of enterprises.However,during the economic downturn,the default of individual companies in the guarantee circle often produce a domino effect,which will cause whole enterprises irn the circle to be in trouble and become the hardest hit area of commercial banksl,credit assets,seriously affecting the development of commercial banks and stability and safety of regional financial markets.Therefore,it is extremely urgent to study to scientifically and effectively identify and prevent the risk of the guarantee circle.Due to the fact that the guarantee circle usually involves many enterprises with complicated guarantee relationship,thus the traditional linear model is unable to solve the complex problem.This paper uses the social network analysis theory to model the complex guarantee network.First of all,a comparative study of the common three circle identification methods was conducted and select the best method to identify it.Secondly,by analyzing the influencing factors of the risk level of the guarantee circle,the quantitative identification system was constructed while the infection path was visualized.Thirdly,with the data of 2014-2017 acquired from the Z conmmercial bank credit system,the identification of the guarantee circle and the quantitative measurement of the risk were carried out,and two typical high-risk guarantee circles were se.lected to conduct the risk control empirical research.Finally,combined with conclusions,the risk prevention measures for the guarantee circle were proposed from three levels:government,bank and customer company.Through research,this paper came to the following four conclusions.First,the definition of guarantee circle is similar to the components in the field of social network analysis field,and the identification of the guarantee circle can be carried out by using the method of social network analysis component analysis.Second,the SNA component analysis method is the best one among three guarantee circle identification methods.Third,the risk level of the guarantee circle is mainly affected by the guarantee network structure indicators,scale indicators and trigger indicators such as non-performing loans and overdue loans.Fourth,by diluting the structural density and reducing the size of the guarantee circle,the risk level of the guarantee circle can be effectively reduced,and the purpose of preventing and controlling risk can be achieved.The research in this paper is beneficial to commercial banks to scientifically and effectively identify the guarantee circle,prevent and control the risk of the guarantee circle,reduce the non-performing loans formed by the guarantee circle,and maintain the security and stability of the financial market.It has important theoretical and practical significance.