| In recent years, with the development of China’s economy,some researchers believe that the long-term high growth of Chinese economy will have bad effect on itself, which also caused many scholars research on China’s economic growth rate. And potential economic growth rate is often be used as an important standard to judge the effectiveness of policy measures and the appropriateness of the actual level of economic growth rate.The sencond part of this paper gives various estimation methods of researching the potential economic growth rate and their advantages and disadvantages. This paper detailed introduces three categories: the statistical trend analysis method, the economic structure analysis method and the calculation method of the Keynesian theory combined with the neoclassical theory. And this article also points out the advantages and disadvantages of various estimation methods.In the third part, we provide the models and estimation methods of researching the potential economic growth rate in this paper. Various estimation methods have different advantages and disadvantages, and most of them are artificial. This paper is based on the actual data of the Chinese economic growth via the Bayes theory and Gibbs sampling method respectively. We use the state space model to describe the dynamic system and use Matlab software programming to get the stochastic simulation experiment. We choose different prior probability of the parameter in the model. In the Simulation studies are conducted to compare proposed method with other exist methods, and simulation results show that the proposed method is better than others. Finally,we make an empirical analysis on China’s potential economic growth rate from 1978 to 2014.And the analysis results are in agreement with those important turning points of China’s economic. |
