Research On The Interaction Between Industrial Structure Upgrading And Residential Housing Price

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998,the real estate industry has provided an important impetus for economic development and has gradually grown into a pillar industry in China.In the 20 years of rapid development of the real estate industry,the real estate market has begun to show a situation of “regional differentiation”: some cities are facing huge “de-stocking” pressures,while some cities still have high housing prices and insufficient stocks.At the same time,China’s economic development has entered a "new normal" from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth,and each city has put forward the goal of "industrial transformation and upgrading" to find new growth poles for economic development.Then,what is the relationship between the real estate industry and the upgrading of industrial structure? How much influence does the industrial structure upgrade have on housing price volatility? How does the high housing price have an impact on the upgrading of industrial structure? The study of these issues has important guiding significance for the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry and the formulation of relevant policies.Therefore,this paper mainly studies the interaction between industrial structure upgrading and housing prices.Firstly,it theoretically analyzes the influence path of the interaction between industrial structure upgrading and residential price,and determines the measurement index of industrial structure upgrading--the rationalization of industrial structure and the advanced industrial structure.Then,it describes and introduces the development history and current situation of China’s industrial structure and residential market,and finds that during the period of 2002-2016,the rationalization and advanced level of industrial structure is consistent with the residential price.Finally,the PVAR model is established to empirically analyze the interaction between industrial structure upgrading and residential price: based on the analysis at the national level,this paper analyze the difference between the industrial structure upgrade and the residential price interaction between different cities,and then analysis and interpretation of the differences between the second and third tier cities.The main conclusions of this paper: the interaction between industrial structure upgrading and housing prices is significant,and the differences between different levels of cities are obvious.For the national level and first-tier cities,the upgrading of industrial structure promotes the rise of housing prices,and the residential price counteracts the upgrading of industrial structure.Excessive housing prices will have an inhibitory effect on industrial structure upgrading;For second-tier cities,the upgrading of industrial structure has promoted the rise of residential prices in the long run,while the rise in residential prices has inhibited the upgrading of industrial structure.For third-tier cities,industrial structure upgrading and residential prices are only affected in the short term,and the interaction between the two is weak.Therefore,this paper suggests that policy makers should consider the industrial structure as an important consideration when regulating the residential market.The residential price level in the region should be appropriate to the regional economic level,and the differences between different cities should also be considered.The formulation of the policy should adopt the principle of “adapting to local conditions and adapting to the city”,promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry on the basis of upgrading the industrial structure,and achieve a good interaction between the industrial structure upgrade and the real estate market.